--- title: "ONI JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ONI JOKER ($123.46) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 66.79% over 119 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ONI JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ONI JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=all) Price · $123.46 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 66.79% · 119 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 107 openings · below min 30 days · 119 openings · below min since tracking started · 119 openings · below min 34.5% 77.8% 121.0% **Small sample.** 119 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=24h) | 39 | 80.38% ±39.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=7d) | 107 | 53.14% ±17.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker) | 119 | 66.79% ±21.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni-joker?window=all) | 119 | 66.79% ±21.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $123 $603 4.88x 2026-11-04 03:48 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $123 $603 4.88x 2026-11-04 03:42 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $123 $603 4.88x 2026-11-04 03:41 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $123 $603 4.88x 2026-11-04 03:25 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $120 $602 5.01x 2026-11-10 22:06 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $122 $594 4.86x 2026-11-08 09:49 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $120 $580 4.84x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=oni-joker) [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $121 $296 2.44x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $10.03 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $120 $286 2.39x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $121 $51.10 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [AWP | Corticera weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $121 $23.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:06 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) Hidden $120 $15.50 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) Hidden $120 $166 1.39x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $120 $64.46 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $89.69 0.75x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) Hidden $120 $12.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $603 (4.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 66.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.79 on average: an expected loss of $33.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt