---
title: "ONI case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ONI ($21.05) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 62 items with odds, observed 88.06% over 5,046 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ONI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ONI

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=all)

Price · $21.05

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $18.42 from 62 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.06% · 5,046 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.74% ±9.22 548 openings

7 days · 88.88% ±3.48 3,911 openings

30 days · 88.06% ±3.06 5,046 openings

since tracking started · 88.06% ±3.06 5,046 openings

81.0% 90.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=24h) | 548 | 90.74% ±9.22 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=7d) | 3,911 | 88.88% ±3.48 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni) | 5,046 | 88.06% ±3.06 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/oni?window=all) | 5,046 | 88.06% ±3.06 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,046 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $602 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $588 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.97× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $394 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $393 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $292 | 0.8% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $214 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $164 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $132 | 0.7% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $119 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $105 | 0.7% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $86.28 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $75.12 | 0.7% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $70.80 | 0.8% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 556 | $70.60 | 0.7% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $66.50 | 0.5% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $65.35 | 2.8% | 50 | 39.4 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 476 | $64.85 | 0.7% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 476 | $64.31 | 0.7% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 435 | $57.86 | 0.7% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $54.95 | 0.7% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $54.81 | 0.9% | 21 | 14.6 | 1.44× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 294 | $54.24 | 1.0% | 17 | 17.2 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $53.32 | 0.9% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $53.21 | 1.0% | 22 | 17.7 | 1.25× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $53.21 | 2.8% | 67 | 48.4 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $50.31 | 2.1% | 19 | 38.9 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $43.82 | 2.7% | 23 | 57.5 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $42.81 | 1.9% | 24 | 40.4 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $41.80 | 1.9% | 31 | 42.4 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $38.91 | 3.1% | 50 | 75.2 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $37.09 | 2.1% | 28 | 53.5 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $36.98 | 3.5% | 49 | 88.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $36.87 | 3.5% | 54 | 89.3 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $35.79 | 1.0% | 17 | 27.2 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $30.97 | 3.9% | 65 | 116.1 | 0.56× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $26.55 | 1.6% | 44 | 56.0 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $26.26 | 1.7% | 40 | 60.0 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $25.23 | 1.7% | 48 | 62.1 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $24.37 | 3.3% | 90 | 127.7 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $23.34 | 1.8% | 35 | 72.2 | 0.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $23.00 | 1.8% | 40 | 74.7 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $22.79 | 3.6% | 96 | 146.3 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $22.15 | 1.3% | 35 | 52.5 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $20.29 | 1.4% | 54 | 64.1 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $19.83 | 1.7% | 67 | 79.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $18.51 | 1.4% | 60 | 71.7 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $16.90 | 1.5% | 66 | 81.2 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $16.56 | 2.3% | 76 | 126.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $15.31 | 2.3% | 105 | 141.3 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $14.98 | 1.2% | 44 | 73.2 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $14.88 | 1.9% | 99 | 118.6 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $14.63 | 1.2% | 60 | 75.7 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $14.48 | 1.2% | 49 | 77.2 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.08 | 3.9% | 305 | 298.7 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.13 | 3.5% | 337 | 320.4 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus) | 1 in 14 | $7.44 | 2.9% | 383 | 362.3 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.07 | 2.8% | 415 | 369.9 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $7.01 | 0.8% | 61 | 105.0 | 0.58× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct) | 1 in 13 | $6.18 | 2.6% | 385 | 390.6 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $5.63 | 0.9% | 114 | 142.8 | 0.80× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.44 | 0.9% | 109 | 149.9 | 0.73× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.11 | 2.0% | 429 | 458.7 | 0.94× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/oni`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $21.05 $603 28.63x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $21.05 $601 28.53x 2026-11-07 05:01 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $21.05 $594 28.20x 2026-11-08 16:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=oni)

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $21.05 $10.13 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $21.05 $10.03 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $21.05 $19.48 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $21.05 $19.05 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) Hidden $21.05 $15.50 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Corticera weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $21.05 $23.53 1.12x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [Huchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Huchi) $21.05 $16.10 0.76x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) [Huchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Huchi) $21.05 $14.55 0.69x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.05 $14.55 0.69x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $21.05 $15.37 0.73x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $21.05 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $21.05 | 87.78% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $21.05 | 87.59% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $21.05 | 87.62% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $21.05 | 87.38% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $21.05 | 87.67% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $21.05 | 87.02% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $21.05 | 87.43% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $21.05 | 87.80% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $21.05 | 87.20% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $21.05 | 87.30% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $21.05 | 87.47% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $21.05 | 87.58% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $21.05 | 87.90% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $21.05 | 87.65% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $21.05 | 87.45% | 62 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.05 | 87.76% | 62 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.2% legendary 0.0% gold 1.9% restricted 13.2% violet 15.0% rare 6.3% red 2.2% classified 15.2% Ancient 1.8% pink 15.7% #d32ce6 2.9% blue 19.6% best hit $603 (28.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt