--- title: "OTRA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "OTRA JOKER ($500.66) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 51.43% over 122 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [OTRA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · OTRA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=all) Price · $500.66 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 51.43% · 122 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 77 openings · below min 7 days · 122 openings · below min 30 days · 122 openings · below min since tracking started · 122 openings · below min 29.0% 49.5% 70.0% **Small sample.** 122 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=24h) | 77 | 49.63% ±19.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=7d) | 122 | 51.43% ±17.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker) | 122 | 51.43% ±17.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/otra-joker?window=all) | 122 | 51.43% ±17.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $501 $2,826 5.65x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $495 $2,785 5.63x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $501 $2,007 4.01x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $495 $1,587 3.21x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $501 $1,579 3.15x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $1,113 2.23x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $495 $1,083 2.19x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $495 $1,083 2.19x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $495 $1,083 2.19x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $501 $868 1.73x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=otra-joker) [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $123 0.25x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [AWP | CMYK weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $128 0.26x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $8.92 0.02x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $260 0.52x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $123 0.25x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [USP-S | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $49.30 0.10x 2026-11-12 04:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $13.18 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $5.93 0.01x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $1,113 2.23x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $500 $8.92 0.02x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,826 (5.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 51.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $51.43 on average: an expected loss of $48.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt