---
title: "PANDORA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PANDORA ($5,000.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 88.75% over 2,534 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PANDORA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PANDORA

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=all)

Price · $5,000.00

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $4,524.95 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.75% · 2,534 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.99% ±17.66 358 openings

7 days · 89.74% ±6.73 2,072 openings

30 days · 88.75% ±6.05 2,534 openings

since tracking started · 88.75% ±6.05 2,534 openings

61.5% 80.0% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=24h) | 358 | 79.99% ±17.7 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=7d) | 2,072 | 89.74% ±6.73 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora) | 2,534 | 88.75% ±6.05 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pandora?window=all) | 2,534 | 88.75% ±6.05 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,534 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 213 | $118K | 12.2% | 2 | 11.9 | 0.17× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $26.6K | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $18.7K | 0.9% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $14.6K | 2.4% | 22 | 19.0 | 1.16× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 32 | $13.7K | 9.4% | 86 | 79.3 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $13.6K | 1.3% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $12K | 0.9% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.39× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 84 | $10.9K | 2.9% | 38 | 30.2 | 1.26× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 75 | $9,664 | 2.9% | 39 | 34.0 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $9,502 | 0.5% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $9,437 | 0.7% | 1 | 8.9 | 0.11× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 72 | $9,362 | 2.9% | 34 | 35.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 71 | $9,286 | 2.9% | 39 | 35.5 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $8,833 | 1.2% | 19 | 16.0 | 1.19× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 65 | $8,426 | 2.9% | 39 | 39.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 63 | $8,214 | 2.9% | 46 | 40.0 | 1.15× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $7,472 | 0.7% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $7,037 | 1.4% | 16 | 23.3 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $6,939 | 1.1% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $6,379 | 0.6% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $6,040 | 1.7% | 24 | 31.4 | 0.76× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 31 | $5,881 | 4.1% | 88 | 80.8 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $5,557 | 1.3% | 25 | 27.6 | 0.91× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 29 | $5,414 | 4.2% | 92 | 87.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 28 | $5,338 | 4.2% | 81 | 89.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $4,046 | 0.7% | 10 | 18.5 | 0.54× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 28 | $3,645 | 2.9% | 103 | 90.7 | 1.14× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $3,643 | 0.7% | 10 | 22.6 | 0.44× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $3,280 | 0.8% | 30 | 28.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 26 | $3,100 | 2.6% | 109 | 96.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $3,054 | 0.3% | 11 | 12.9 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $2,941 | 0.9% | 20 | 33.2 | 0.60× |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $2,718 | 0.9% | 22 | 37.0 | 0.59× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2,625 | 2.4% | 86 | 103.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $2,559 | 0.8% | 25 | 37.0 | 0.68× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $2,439 | 0.7% | 22 | 33.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $2,274 | 0.3% | 13 | 16.7 | 0.78× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $2,256 | 2.2% | 97 | 110.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2,232 | 2.2% | 125 | 110.5 | 1.13× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 23 | $2,204 | 2.1% | 95 | 111.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 22 | $2,042 | 2.0% | 112 | 114.5 | 0.98× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 22 | $2,003 | 2.0% | 128 | 115.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $1,945 | 0.8% | 42 | 48.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $1,918 | 0.4% | 17 | 21.3 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $1,888 | 0.4% | 20 | 21.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $1,879 | 0.4% | 9 | 25.6 | 0.35× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 21 | $1,818 | 1.9% | 126 | 119.9 | 1.05× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1,614 | 0.4% | 24 | 31.7 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $1,549 | 0.4% | 30 | 28.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1,478 | 1.4% | 84 | 108.7 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,390 | 0.9% | 69 | 77.8 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $1,344 | 0.4% | 27 | 35.0 | 0.77× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,124 | 1.0% | 62 | 99.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $1,014 | 0.5% | 55 | 61.6 | 0.89× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/pandora`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-09 22:08 UTC

[Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-09 00:51 UTC

[Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC

[Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [$100K - CODE: AMPETER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%24100K%20-%20CODE%3A%20AMPETER) $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC

[Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) [$100K - CODE: AMPETER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%24100K%20-%20CODE%3A%20AMPETER) $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-05 15:16 UTC

[Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,000 $118K 23.56x 2026-11-04 02:19 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $5,000 $31K 6.20x 2026-11-05 15:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $5,000 $19.2K 3.84x 2026-11-07 22:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $5,000 $19.2K 3.84x 2026-11-06 05:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $5,000 $18.9K 3.78x 2026-11-09 21:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pandora)

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $2,625 0.53x 2026-11-11 03:28 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $2,232 0.45x 2026-11-11 03:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl weapon · orange](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $6,879 1.38x 2026-11-11 03:28 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $2,204 0.44x 2026-11-11 03:27 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $5,000 $2,204 0.44x 2026-11-11 03:27 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $5,000 $2,625 0.53x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $5,000 $8,628 1.73x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $5,000 $9,286 1.86x 2026-11-10 22:37 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $5,000 $2,042 0.41x 2026-11-10 22:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,000 $3,100 0.62x 2026-11-10 22:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5,000 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5,000 | 90.57% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5,000 | 90.66% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5,000 | 90.32% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5,000 | 90.40% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5,000 | 90.63% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5,000 | 90.66% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5,000 | 90.76% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5,000 | 90.87% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5,000 | 90.83% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5,000 | 90.13% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5,000 | 90.06% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5,000 | 90.78% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5,000 | 90.89% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5,000 | 90.77% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5,000 | 90.78% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,000 | 90.23% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed high 0.5% legendary 7.8% covert 73.1% contraband 2.5% extraordinary 12.3% classified 3.9% best hit $118K (23.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt