--- title: "PERFECT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "PERFECT ($3.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 9 items with odds, observed 74.15% over 7,345 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PERFECT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PERFECT A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=all) Price · $3.25 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.84 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.15% · 7,345 openings, odds method Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 36 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.47% ±29.38 745 openings 7 days · 72.92% ±10.46 6,168 openings 30 days · 74.15% ±9.68 7,345 openings since tracking started · 74.15% ±9.68 7,345 openings 35.5% 65.5% 95.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.46% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.47% – 83.82%, 7,345 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=24h) | 745 | 65.47% ±29.4 | −1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=7d) | 6,168 | 72.92% ±10.5 | −2.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect) | 7,345 | 74.15% ±9.68 | −2.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/perfect?window=all) | 7,345 | 74.15% ±9.68 | −2.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,351 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $550 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $124 | 13.9% | 17 | 23.5 | 0.72× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $64.31 | 14.5% | 58 | 47.0 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $50.22 | 13.8% | 51 | 57.3 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $37.64 | 13.6% | 59 | 75.7 | 0.78× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $23.31 | 13.9% | 92 | 124.2 | 0.74× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $16.85 | 13.8% | 119 | 171.3 | 0.69× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $14.59 | 14.0% | 129 | 199.9 | 0.65× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 90.5% | $0.02 | 0.6% | 6,825 | 6651.2 | 1.03× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/perfect`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.25 $551 169.6x 2026-11-09 19:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=perfect) [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [Ta! Lung (HUN)](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ta!%20Lung%20%28HUN%29) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [SÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S%C3%9CLEYMAN%20%C3%87AKIR) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [SÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S%C3%9CLEYMAN%20%C3%87AKIR) $3.25 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.25 | 87.50% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.25 | 88.09% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.25 | 88.07% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.25 | 87.05% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.25 | 87.44% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.25 | 87.53% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.25 | 87.28% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.25 | 87.57% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.25 | 87.42% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.25 | 87.17% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.25 | 87.58% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.25 | 87.19% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.25 | 87.60% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.25 | 87.41% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.25 | 87.60% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.25 | 87.28% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.25 | 87.20% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 1.7% Ancient 1.0% classified 1.7% uncommon 2.3% Legendary 2.7% Uncommon 90.5% best hit $551 (169.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt