---
title: "PHASED case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PHASED ($13.29) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 87.60% over 2,929 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PHASED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PHASED

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=all)

Price · $13.29

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $11.63 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.60% · 2,929 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.15% ±11.11 321 openings

7 days · 88.65% ±4.23 2,240 openings

30 days · 87.60% ±3.69 2,929 openings

since tracking started · 87.60% ±3.69 2,929 openings

79.5% 91.3% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=24h) | 321 | 91.15% ±11.1 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=7d) | 2,240 | 88.65% ±4.23 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased) | 2,929 | 87.60% ±3.69 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/phased?window=all) | 2,929 | 87.60% ±3.69 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,929 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $710 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 14,286 | $619 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $423 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $231 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $70.76 | 1.0% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $64.31 | 1.1% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $52.52 | 1.0% | 16 | 6.7 | 2.38× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $48.60 | 6.6% | 35 | 46.0 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $42.81 | 6.6% | 40 | 52.1 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $37.64 | 6.6% | 51 | 59.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 11.1% | $23.67 | 22.6% | 323 | 324.5 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $19.53 | 5.6% | 115 | 98.1 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $18.98 | 5.6% | 124 | 100.8 | 1.23× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.53 | 5.6% | 167 | 131.8 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $13.55 | 5.6% | 162 | 141.2 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $8.08 | 4.9% | 184 | 205.9 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $7.07 | 4.5% | 198 | 217.0 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $6.84 | 4.4% | 202 | 220.0 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $5.25 | 3.8% | 219 | 244.6 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.10 | 3.7% | 247 | 247.5 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.15 | 3.3% | 282 | 268.6 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.11 | 3.3% | 258 | 269.8 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $3.64 | 3.0% | 291 | 283.2 | 1.03× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/phased`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=phased)

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $13.29 $4.11 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $13.29 $4.14 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $13.29 $4.14 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) Hidden $13.29 $18.26 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $13.29 $4.14 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $13.29 $4.11 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [chiwita](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/chiwita) $13.29 $14.53 1.09x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [chiwita](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/chiwita) $13.29 $14.63 1.10x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $13.29 $5.03 0.38x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) Hidden $13.29 $5.32 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $13.29 | 87.57% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $13.29 | 87.45% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $13.29 | 87.73% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $13.29 | 87.38% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.29 | 87.48% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $13.29 | 87.34% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $13.29 | 87.63% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $13.29 | 87.62% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $13.29 | 87.43% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $13.29 | 87.56% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $13.29 | 87.71% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $13.29 | 87.39% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $13.29 | 87.72% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $13.29 | 87.61% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% red 1.8% rare 0.2% pink 33.1% Ancient 2.0% classified 32.3% #eb4b4b 3.4% blue 18.4% Legendary 8.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt