--- title: "PIKA PIKA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PIKA PIKA JOKER ($111.03) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 78.78% over 455 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T01:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PIKA PIKA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PIKA PIKA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=all) Price · $111.03 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 78.78% · 455 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 126 openings · below min 7 days · 426 openings · below min 30 days · 455 openings · below min since tracking started · 455 openings · below min 29.0% 75.3% 121.5% **Small sample.** 455 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=24h) | 126 | 75.43% ±45.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=7d) | 426 | 77.05% ±25.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker) | 455 | 78.78% ±24.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika-joker?window=all) | 455 | 78.78% ±24.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $111 $1,665 15.01x 2026-11-03 09:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $109 $1,623 14.93x 2026-11-05 03:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $109 $1,623 14.93x 2026-11-05 03:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $107 $1,603 14.93x 2026-11-07 22:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $107 $1,603 14.93x 2026-11-07 22:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $107 $1,603 14.93x 2026-11-07 22:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $107 $1,603 14.93x 2026-11-07 22:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $106 $1,601 15.08x 2026-11-10 01:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $106 $1,601 15.08x 2026-11-10 00:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $106 $1,601 15.08x 2026-11-10 00:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pika-pika-joker) [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) [Gustavo JR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gustavo%20JR) $106 $13.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 22:53 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) [ZӨΗЯIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%D3%A8%CE%97%D0%AFIK) $106 $39.08 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $106 $35.08 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $106 $89.37 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [Sticker | Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) Hidden $106 $0.91 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $106 $16.44 0.15x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $106 $44.14 0.42x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) [ZӨΗЯIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%D3%A8%CE%97%D0%AFIK) $106 $35.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $106 $21.92 0.21x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $106 $7.49 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,665 (15.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.78 on average: an expected loss of $21.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt