---
title: "PIKA PIKA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PIKA PIKA ($3.64) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 82.82% over 5,961 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PIKA PIKA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PIKA PIKA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=all)

Price · $3.64

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.18 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.82% · 5,961 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.66% ±28.51 516 openings

7 days · 83.29% ±9.35 4,994 openings

30 days · 82.82% ±8.60 5,961 openings

since tracking started · 82.82% ±8.60 5,961 openings

52.5% 81.8% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=24h) | 516 | 81.66% ±28.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=7d) | 4,994 | 83.29% ±9.35 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika) | 5,961 | 82.82% ±8.60 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pika-pika?window=all) | 5,961 | 82.82% ±8.60 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,007 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,584 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $283 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $122 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $89.42 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $63.63 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $44.14 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $35.50 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $35.06 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,538 | $31.60 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $30.92 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $23.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,087 | $22.30 | 0.6% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $18.68 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 2,273 | $15.29 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,205 | $15.08 | 0.4% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,174 | $14.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $14.18 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $13.51 | 4.3% | 31 | 61.1 | 0.51× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $12.52 | 9.0% | 149 | 137.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $12.41 | 4.7% | 67 | 72.4 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $9.41 | 3.3% | 58 | 66.4 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $7.47 | 6.2% | 92 | 157.6 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $7.24 | 5.9% | 91 | 155.2 | 0.59× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $6.68 | 6.4% | 106 | 182.4 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $6.51 | 6.5% | 108 | 192.0 | 0.56× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $5.36 | 5.8% | 175 | 207.2 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.88 | 9.1% | 552 | 449.3 | 1.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $3.64 | 6.1% | 243 | 322.0 | 0.75× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.89 | 4.4% | 430 | 448.5 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.78 | 4.3% | 427 | 457.2 | 0.93× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.30 | 3.5% | 531 | 518.4 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Rush 4x20 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20) | 1 in 11 | $1.15 | 3.3% | 558 | 544.4 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) | 1 in 10 | $0.91 | 2.8% | 629 | 597.9 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) | 10.9% | $0.72 | 2.5% | 647 | 656.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Ribbon Tie sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ribbon-tie) | 12.2% | $0.54 | 2.1% | 733 | 734.5 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/pika-pika`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pika-pika)

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $3.64 $1.15 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $3.64 $1.13 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 $12.44 3.42x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-well-worn) Hidden $3.64 $6.58 1.81x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[P90 | Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.64 $3.88 1.07x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket) [NoNOPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNOPE) $3.64 $6.34 1.74x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Sticker | Rush 4x20 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-4x20) [NoNOPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNOPE) $3.64 $1.15 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Sticker | Cutie sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cutie) [NoNOPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNOPE) $3.64 $0.72 0.20x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Sticker | Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) [NoNOPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNOPE) $3.64 $0.91 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) [NoNOPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NoNOPE) $3.64 $9.41 2.59x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.64 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.64 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.64 | 87.84% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.64 | 87.69% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.64 | 87.60% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.64 | 87.68% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.64 | 87.41% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.64 | 87.55% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.64 | 87.18% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.64 | 87.36% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.64 | 87.52% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.64 | 87.25% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.64 | 87.76% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.64 | 87.42% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.64 | 87.38% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.64 | 87.74% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.64 | 87.40% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.64 | 87.57% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 17.3% covert 0.2% restricted 2.6% rare 0.1% violet 46.1% pink 1.0% Rare 7.5% Mythical 5.4% blue 19.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt