---
title: "PINK STAR case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PINK STAR ($15.35) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 52 items with odds, observed 85.24% over 4,735 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PINK STAR](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PINK STAR

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=all)

Price · $15.35

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $13.43 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.24% · 4,735 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.13% ±11.74 345 openings

7 days · 85.74% ±3.46 3,986 openings

30 days · 85.24% ±3.18 4,735 openings

since tracking started · 85.24% ±3.18 4,735 openings

71.5% 84.0% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=24h) | 345 | 84.13% ±11.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=7d) | 3,986 | 85.74% ±3.46 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star) | 4,735 | 85.24% ±3.18 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pink-star?window=all) | 4,735 | 85.24% ±3.18 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,735 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,068 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $783 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 8,333 | $469 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $379 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $237 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $205 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $173 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $137 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $122 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $114 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $82.41 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $72.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $71.39 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $70.80 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $64.31 | 0.4% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.85× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $58.10 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $54.24 | 2.5% | 10 | 28.9 | 0.35× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $53.21 | 2.5% | 20 | 29.8 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $53.10 | 3.6% | 32 | 42.6 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 139 | $42.18 | 2.3% | 20 | 34.1 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 137 | $41.68 | 2.3% | 22 | 34.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $41.37 | 2.3% | 19 | 35.5 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $33.60 | 3.7% | 34 | 69.1 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $29.96 | 4.1% | 42 | 87.1 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $28.91 | 4.2% | 63 | 93.3 | 0.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $26.55 | 5.6% | 77 | 133.5 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $26.52 | 3.4% | 43 | 80.5 | 0.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $23.00 | 5.5% | 99 | 151.5 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $22.06 | 3.4% | 73 | 99.0 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $20.36 | 10.2% | 359 | 319.1 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $19.34 | 3.9% | 94 | 129.3 | 0.73× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.20 | 4.7% | 193 | 211.2 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $13.48 | 4.4% | 229 | 206.9 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $12.03 | 1.8% | 65 | 96.1 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $10.60 | 1.0% | 50 | 59.7 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| The End (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $9.60 | 2.0% | 99 | 132.1 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $8.56 | 1.5% | 85 | 110.8 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $7.50 | 1.1% | 68 | 96.6 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $7.50 | 1.1% | 75 | 96.6 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $7.26 | 0.5% | 32 | 45.9 | 0.70× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $6.98 | 3.0% | 280 | 269.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.90 | 1.6% | 103 | 149.6 | 0.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $5.25 | 2.5% | 321 | 301.6 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $5.04 | 2.4% | 309 | 306.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $4.67 | 0.6% | 66 | 84.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $4.61 | 0.6% | 61 | 86.7 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $4.37 | 0.6% | 66 | 93.3 | 0.71× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.27 | 2.2% | 319 | 327.7 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.15 | 1.0% | 105 | 150.1 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.11 | 2.2% | 361 | 332.9 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.44 | 1.0% | 118 | 187.0 | 0.63× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/pink-star`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $15.35 $1,073 69.87x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pink-star)

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $15.35 $13.48 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $15.35 $14.00 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 $25.79 1.68x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 $22.82 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $15.35 $5.02 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [elSimione](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elSimione) $15.35 $5.25 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $15.35 $53.31 3.47x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia) [ARMI](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ARMI) $15.35 $24.66 1.61x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 $14.00 0.91x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $15.35 $21.11 1.38x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $15.35 | 87.50% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $15.35 | 87.63% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $15.35 | 87.87% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $15.35 | 87.74% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $15.35 | 87.72% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.35 | 87.83% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $15.35 | 87.75% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $15.35 | 87.81% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $15.35 | 87.95% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $15.35 | 87.70% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $15.35 | 87.83% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $15.35 | 88.07% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $15.35 | 87.86% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $15.35 | 87.90% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $15.35 | 87.94% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $15.35 | 87.94% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.35 | 87.88% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.0% gold 0.0% red 1.7% Ancient 0.0% classified 17.4% rare 8.1% pink 41.7% restricted 11.5% uncommon 2.7% violet 4.1% #8847ff 3.2% Classified 6.5% best hit $1,073 (69.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt