--- title: "POKER JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "POKER JOKER ($774.99) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 58.80% over 42 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [POKER JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · POKER JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=all) Price · $774.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 58.80% · 42 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 21 openings · below min 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 42 openings · below min since tracking started · 42 openings · below min 25.5% 53.8% 82.0% **Small sample.** 42 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=24h) | 21 | 39.05% ±13.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=7d) | 38 | 58.02% ±23.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker) | 42 | 58.80% ±22.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker-joker?window=all) | 42 | 58.80% ±22.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $771 $2,660 3.45x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $775 $1,664 2.15x 2026-11-04 22:58 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [ABSiNTH97](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ABSiNTH97) $775 $1,596 2.06x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [ABSiNTH97](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ABSiNTH97) $771 $1,565 2.03x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $771 $1,565 2.03x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $754 $861 1.14x 2026-11-12 02:04 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $771 $859 1.11x 2026-11-05 18:18 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $771 $615 0.80x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $754 $610 0.81x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $754 $610 0.81x 2026-11-12 02:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=poker-joker) [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $754 $607 0.80x 2026-11-12 02:07 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $754 $244 0.32x 2026-11-12 02:06 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) Hidden $754 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) Hidden $754 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) Hidden $754 $258 0.34x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $754 $169 0.22x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $754 $610 0.81x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $754 $607 0.80x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) [pele27](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pele27) $754 $206 0.27x 2026-11-12 02:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) Hidden $754 $206 0.27x 2026-11-12 02:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,660 (3.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 58.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $58.80 on average: an expected loss of $41.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt