---
title: "POKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "POKER ($40.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 84.13% over 3,428 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [POKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · POKER

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.00 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.13% · 3,428 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 61.53% ±54.49 152 openings

7 days · 84.63% ±14.54 3,017 openings

30 days · 84.13% ±13.38 3,428 openings

since tracking started · 84.13% ±13.38 3,428 openings

6.5% 61.5% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=24h) | 152 | 61.53% ±54.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=7d) | 3,017 | 84.63% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker) | 3,428 | 84.13% ±13.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/poker?window=all) | 3,428 | 84.13% ±13.4 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,428 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,559 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 588 | $1,707 | 8.3% | 14 | 5.8 | 2.40× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,685 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $1,549 | 6.6% | 11 | 5.1 | 2.14× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $858 | 7.6% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $609 | 8.2% | 16 | 16.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $602 | 6.9% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $287 | 7.5% | 24 | 31.2 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $280 | 7.5% | 15 | 32.2 | 0.47× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 93 | $246 | 7.5% | 24 | 36.7 | 0.65× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $218 | 7.5% | 35 | 41.1 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $197 | 1.4% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $170 | 1.6% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $127 | 7.5% | 37 | 70.6 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $122 | 2.2% | 15 | 21.6 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $114 | 2.3% | 8 | 24.7 | 0.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $92.17 | 7.5% | 55 | 97.4 | 0.56× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $59.43 | 7.5% | 79 | 151.5 | 0.52× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 83.1% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 3,048 | 2848.7 | 1.07× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/poker`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,664 41.61x 2026-11-04 11:13 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [diegoenol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/diegoenol) $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:47 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [diegoenol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/diegoenol) $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:47 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:43 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:40 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:37 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 04:37 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 03:20 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.00 $1,659 41.48x 2026-11-09 02:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=poker)

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [Titi Aranda](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Titi%20Aranda) $40.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $40.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $40.00 | 87.08% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $40.00 | 87.45% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.00 | 87.71% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $40.00 | 87.84% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $40.00 | 87.28% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $40.00 | 87.39% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $40.00 | 87.78% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $40.00 | 88.10% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $40.00 | 87.71% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $40.00 | 87.60% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $40.00 | 87.32% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $40.00 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $40.00 | 87.89% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $40.00 | 87.62% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $40.00 | 87.81% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.00 | 87.30% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.9% covert 11.5% restricted 0.0% epic 0.4% rare 1.2% classified 2.8% gray 83.1% best hit $1,664 (41.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt