---
title: "POLYCHROME case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "POLYCHROME ($10.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 60 items with odds, observed 87.36% over 21.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [POLYCHROME](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · POLYCHROME

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $8.75 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.36% · 21.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.67% ±5.60 2,195 openings

7 days · 87.60% ±2.02 16.5K openings

30 days · 87.36% ±1.78 21.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.36% ±1.78 21.5K openings

77.5% 84.0% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=24h) | 2,195 | 83.67% ±5.60 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=7d) | 16.5K | 87.60% ±2.02 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome) | 21.5K | 87.36% ±1.78 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/polychrome?window=all) | 21.5K | 87.36% ±1.78 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $787 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $688 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.66× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $513 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $481 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $193 | 0.7% | 11 | 6.5 | 1.70× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $158 | 0.9% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $148 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $137 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $100 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $100 | 0.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $82.85 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $65.37 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $59.97 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $56.68 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $55.21 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $54.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $53.97 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $53.04 | 0.0% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.66× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $52.52 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $50.22 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $48.53 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $43.49 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.69 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $37.64 | 0.1% | 7 | 2.6 | 2.71× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 271 | $36.92 | 1.6% | 26 | 79.4 | 0.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $35.79 | 5.8% | 249 | 303.5 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $32.89 | 2.4% | 80 | 139.4 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $26.29 | 2.1% | 159 | 152.1 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $23.96 | 6.1% | 155 | 479.4 | 0.32× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $23.96 | 1.3% | 113 | 103.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $22.15 | 4.2% | 309 | 356.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $15.30 | 6.7% | 601 | 820.1 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $14.63 | 1.8% | 142 | 228.2 | 0.62× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $14.59 | 0.8% | 89 | 106.9 | 0.83× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $14.32 | 2.9% | 331 | 386.9 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $13.55 | 0.7% | 60 | 95.7 | 0.63× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $13.35 | 2.9% | 385 | 415.1 | 0.93× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $12.99 | 2.9% | 433 | 426.7 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 194 | $12.59 | 0.7% | 86 | 110.8 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $12.38 | 0.8% | 68 | 114.6 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $12.18 | 0.8% | 84 | 118.3 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $11.37 | 2.9% | 504 | 487.3 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $10.91 | 0.9% | 107 | 161.9 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $10.77 | 1.0% | 245 | 180.4 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $9.26 | 2.0% | 304 | 416.4 | 0.73× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $8.20 | 5.9% | 1,316 | 1360.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $5.81 | 3.1% | 728 | 1014.5 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $5.81 | 1.4% | 355 | 465.0 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $5.71 | 3.4% | 851 | 1130.2 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $5.42 | 2.6% | 574 | 886.3 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $5.27 | 2.1% | 560 | 763.9 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $5.25 | 1.5% | 388 | 536.0 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| Leaving The Station sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-leaving-the-station) | 1 in 13 | $5.19 | 4.5% | 1,538 | 1633.7 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.10 | 3.0% | 860 | 1121.2 | 0.77× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.80 | 4.3% | 1,789 | 1685.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.68 | 2.2% | 655 | 901.8 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $4.64 | 1.6% | 466 | 637.0 | 0.73× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.27 | 1.8% | 578 | 809.3 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.11 | 3.9% | 1,809 | 1793.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.61 | 2.0% | 679 | 1026.3 | 0.66× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/polychrome`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $772 77.16x 2026-11-07 13:55 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $690 69.04x 2026-11-07 21:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $690 69.04x 2026-11-07 19:23 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [MmorİCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mmor%C4%B0CS2.ME) $10.00 $680 67.99x 2026-11-08 22:07 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [MmorİCS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mmor%C4%B0CS2.ME) $10.00 $680 67.99x 2026-11-08 22:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [twitch.tv/beicolaso](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fbeicolaso) $10.00 $516 51.56x 2026-11-07 19:27 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [twitch.tv/beicolaso](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fbeicolaso) $10.00 $516 51.56x 2026-11-07 19:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=polychrome)

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $5.17 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $4.95 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $5.83 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $3.90 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $5.83 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $5.95 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $5.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $12.96 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $4.27 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [dimitri petrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dimitri%20petrof) $10.00 $5.30 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $10.00 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.58% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $10.00 | 87.89% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.00 | 87.81% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $10.00 | 87.98% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.00 | 87.81% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $10.00 | 87.77% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $10.00 | 87.68% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.75% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $10.00 | 87.93% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $10.00 | 87.90% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $10.00 | 87.78% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $10.00 | 87.66% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $10.00 | 87.91% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $10.00 | 88.04% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.52% | 60 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.00 | 87.84% | 60 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% epic 0.0% red 0.4% Ancient 0.0% classified 18.8% Classified 0.6% rare 0.5% Legendary 14.0% pink 42.0% violet 17.4% uncommon 6.0% best hit $772 (77.16x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt