--- title: "PRIME JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "PRIME JOKER ($77.51) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.35% over 2,045 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PRIME JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PRIME JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=all) Price · $77.51 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.35% · 2,045 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 238 openings · below min 7 days · 82.99% ±9.41 1,777 openings 30 days · 81.35% ±8.67 2,045 openings since tracking started · 81.35% ±8.67 2,045 openings 40.0% 66.5% 93.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=24h) | 238 | 62.15% ±21.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=7d) | 1,777 | 82.99% ±9.41 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker) | 2,045 | 81.35% ±8.67 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2-joker?window=all) | 2,045 | 81.35% ±8.67 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $77.06 $731 9.48x 2026-11-04 03:26 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $77.06 $731 9.48x 2026-11-03 20:52 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $77.06 $731 9.48x 2026-11-03 19:58 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $77.06 $731 9.48x 2026-11-03 18:35 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $76.90 $730 9.49x 2026-11-04 11:50 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $76.93 $728 9.46x 2026-11-08 22:12 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [MIR☪](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MIR%E2%98%AA) $76.93 $728 9.46x 2026-11-08 10:58 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [MosurDrop](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MosurDrop) $76.93 $728 9.46x 2026-11-08 09:16 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [oskarrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/oskarrr) $76.93 $728 9.46x 2026-11-06 15:24 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) [CODE: ELTUCUCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%3A%20ELTUCUCS) $76.93 $728 9.46x 2026-11-05 23:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=prime-2-joker) [Sticker | Sprout Esports | Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sprout-esports-boston-2018) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $58.47 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Sticker | Rare Atom | Budapest 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rare-atom-budapest-2025) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $2.90 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Sticker | Vitality | Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-stockholm-2021) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $2.75 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Sticker | mousesports | Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-cologne-2016) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $38.20 0.51x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | TYLOO | Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-austin-2025) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $3.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics | Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $515 6.89x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | Miami Tier6 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $22.50 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-cologne-2014) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $347 4.65x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $3.84 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [Sticker | FURIA | Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-stockholm-2021) [flipin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/flipin) $74.64 $5.56 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $731 (9.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.35 on average: an expected loss of $18.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt