---
title: "PRIME case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PRIME ($7.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 88.02% over 7,530 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PRIME](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PRIME

A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.13 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.02% · 7,530 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.81% ±9.44 1,539 openings

7 days · 88.26% ±4.52 6,660 openings

30 days · 88.02% ±4.27 7,530 openings

since tracking started · 88.02% ±4.27 7,530 openings

74.5% 84.7% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=24h) | 1,539 | 84.81% ±9.44 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=7d) | 6,660 | 88.26% ±4.52 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2) | 7,530 | 88.02% ±4.27 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/prime-2?window=all) | 7,530 | 88.02% ±4.27 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,535 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2015 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2015) | 1 in 10,000 | $694 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Katowice 2015 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-katowice-2015) | 1 in 6,667 | $568 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) | 1 in 5,000 | $430 | 1.4% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.32× |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-cologne-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $344 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sticker \| rox \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 3,448 | $105 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,273 | $68.95 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Sprout Esports \| Boston 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sprout-esports-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,852 | $58.01 | 0.5% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports \| Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-cologne-2016) | 1 in 1,205 | $37.07 | 0.5% | 1 | 6.3 | 0.16× |
| [Sticker \| Rogue \| London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rogue-london-2018) | 1 in 57 | $25.49 | 7.3% | 20 | 132.2 | 0.15× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Tier6 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-tier6) | 1 in 50 | $22.50 | 7.3% | 122 | 149.8 | 0.81× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) | 1 in 58 | $16.96 | 4.8% | 130 | 130.4 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-cologne-2016) | 1 in 52 | $15.37 | 4.8% | 32 | 143.8 | 0.22× |
| [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava) | 1 in 36 | $10.69 | 4.8% | 208 | 206.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Miami Buttery sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-buttery) | 1 in 36 | $10.63 | 4.8% | 206 | 208.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Vega Squadron \| Katowice 2019 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vega-squadron-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $10.42 | 3.4% | 42 | 149.9 | 0.28× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $9.80 | 3.4% | 158 | 159.4 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) | 1 in 41 | $8.44 | 3.4% | 179 | 185.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Great Wave sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave) | 1 in 40 | $8.37 | 3.4% | 209 | 186.6 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| max \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-max-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 39 | $8.12 | 3.4% | 55 | 192.4 | 0.29× |
| [Sticker \| Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) | 1 in 39 | $8.05 | 3.4% | 186 | 194.1 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| NiKo \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 32 | $5.96 | 3.1% | 80 | 237.6 | 0.34× |
| [Sticker \| Necron Glyphs sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-necron-glyphs) | 1 in 31 | $5.65 | 3.0% | 224 | 241.6 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| FURIA \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 31 | $5.51 | 2.9% | 79 | 244.1 | 0.32× |
| [Sticker \| Imperial Esports \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-imperial-esports-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 30 | $5.01 | 2.8% | 61 | 253.6 | 0.24× |
| [Sticker \| Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) | 1 in 29 | $4.86 | 2.7% | 260 | 256.6 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 1 in 27 | $3.96 | 2.4% | 298 | 278.6 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Sharks Esports \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sharks-esports-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 27 | $3.90 | 2.4% | 86 | 280.3 | 0.31× |
| [Sticker \| TYLOO \| Austin 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-austin-2025) | 1 in 26 | $3.43 | 2.2% | 98 | 295.0 | 0.33× |
| [Sticker \| NEO \| Cologne 2016 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-cologne-2016) | 1 in 25 | $3.14 | 2.1% | 318 | 305.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| First Blood sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood) | 1 in 24 | $2.96 | 2.0% | 263 | 312.9 | 0.84× |
| [Sticker \| Rare Atom \| Budapest 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rare-atom-budapest-2025) | 1 in 24 | $2.88 | 2.0% | 88 | 316.4 | 0.28× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 24 | $2.84 | 2.0% | 325 | 318.2 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| ENCE \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 24 | $2.79 | 1.9% | 96 | 320.5 | 0.30× |
| [Sticker \| Vitality \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vitality-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 23 | $2.73 | 1.9% | 101 | 323.3 | 0.31× |
| [Sticker \| TYLOO \| Budapest 2025 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-budapest-2025) | 1 in 22 | $2.45 | 1.8% | 99 | 337.6 | 0.29× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 20 | $1.89 | 1.5% | 367 | 374.4 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Eyes In The Sky sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-in-the-sky) | 1 in 20 | $1.86 | 1.5% | 387 | 376.8 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 1 in 19 | $1.56 | 1.4% | 423 | 403.3 | 1.05× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/prime-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $7.00 $691 98.68x 2026-11-09 17:35 UTC

[Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $7.00 $515 73.51x 2026-11-08 20:14 UTC

[Sticker | Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $7.00 $453 64.71x 2026-11-07 13:53 UTC

[Sticker | Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $7.00 $453 64.71x 2026-11-07 13:52 UTC

[Sticker | Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) [Carretilla](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Carretilla) $7.00 $453 64.71x 2026-11-06 18:28 UTC

[Sticker | Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) Hidden $7.00 $438 62.56x 2026-11-10 15:20 UTC

[Sticker | Crown sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown) Hidden $7.00 $438 62.56x 2026-11-10 13:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=prime-2)

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $7.00 $1.89 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $3.96 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | FURIA | Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-stockholm-2021) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $5.51 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | NEO | Cologne 2016 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-cologne-2016) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $3.14 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | FURIA | Stockholm 2021 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-stockholm-2021) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $5.51 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $2.84 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sticker | Kill Count sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $4.86 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sticker | Natus Vincere | Cologne 2016 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-cologne-2016) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $15.37 2.20x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $1.56 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sticker | Necron Glyphs sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-necron-glyphs) [gun1CS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gun1CS) $7.00 $5.65 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $7.00 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $7.00 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.00 | 87.94% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.00 | 87.51% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.00 | 87.71% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.00 | 87.68% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.00 | 87.90% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.00 | 87.84% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.67% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.00 | 87.72% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.00 | 87.65% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.00 | 87.86% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.00 | 87.74% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.00 | 87.66% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.00 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.82% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.00 | 87.91% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed High Grade 1.8% pink 31.4% high 6.8% violet 48.6% blue 11.4% best hit $691 (98.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt