---
title: "PUMPKIN SPICE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "PUMPKIN SPICE ($1.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 84.96% over 147K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PUMPKIN SPICE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PUMPKIN SPICE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.87 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.96% · 147K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.41% ±1.87 72.6K openings

7 days · 84.96% ±1.31 147K openings

30 days · 84.96% ±1.31 147K openings

since tracking started · 84.96% ±1.31 147K openings

82.0% 85.5% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.29% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.65% – 86.27%, 147,149 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=24h) | 72.6K | 84.41% ±1.87 | −3.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=7d) | 147K | 84.96% ±1.31 | −5.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2) | 147K | 84.96% ±1.31 | −5.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice-2?window=all) | 147K | 84.96% ±1.31 | −5.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 158K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $434 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $70.80 | 0.6% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.64 | 0.4% | 18 | 15.8 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $30.98 | 0.1% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $17.55 | 0.0% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $12.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.93 | 0.3% | 17 | 31.5 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.59 | 0.3% | 17 | 31.5 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.18 | 0.3% | 16 | 31.5 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $10.65 | 0.0% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $7.02 | 0.1% | 8 | 23.6 | 0.34× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $6.84 | 0.1% | 14 | 23.6 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $6.59 | 0.2% | 27 | 47.3 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.25 | 0.1% | 18 | 31.5 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $6.22 | 0.3% | 36 | 63.0 | 0.57× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $3.40 | 2.7% | 577 | 1103.2 | 0.52× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 278 | $3.25 | 1.3% | 196 | 567.4 | 0.35× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 263 | $3.17 | 1.4% | 227 | 598.9 | 0.38× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 119 | $2.84 | 2.7% | 1,999 | 1323.8 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $2.30 | 6.9% | 3,573 | 4144.9 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1.96 | 6.9% | 4,458 | 4869.9 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 31 | $1.89 | 6.9% | 4,299 | 5043.2 | 0.85× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.22 | 5.1% | 5,997 | 5752.4 | 1.04× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.22 | 5.1% | 6,332 | 5752.4 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 26 | $1.18 | 5.1% | 6,314 | 5957.3 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.00 | 5.1% | 7,675 | 7029.0 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.94 | 7.0% | 9,691 | 10259.8 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) | 1 in 15 | $0.91 | 6.8% | 10,053 | 10354.4 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 5.5% | 11,639 | 11993.4 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 5.5% | 11,924 | 11993.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 4.7% | 13,163 | 13380.3 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.45 | 4.5% | 14,030 | 13727.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.41 | 4.2% | 14,838 | 14247.1 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.39 | 4.1% | 14,635 | 14530.8 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.38 | 4.0% | 15,449 | 14641.1 | 1.06× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/pumpkin-spice-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) [Es el Noto](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Es%20el%20Noto) $1.00 $432 432.4x 2026-11-09 19:31 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) [Es el Noto](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Es%20el%20Noto) $1.00 $432 432.4x 2026-11-09 19:31 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $430 429.6x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $71.28 71.28x 2026-11-10 03:39 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-11 08:48 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-11 02:03 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-10 17:46 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [TotoroYakuza SKINS CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TotoroYakuza%20SKINS%20CS2.ME) $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [TotoroYakuza SKINS CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TotoroYakuza%20SKINS%20CS2.ME) $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.80 70.80x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pumpkin-spice-2)

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) [Luiz Jácinto Leite Cápelo Rego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luiz%20J%C3%A1cinto%20Leite%20C%C3%A1pelo%20Rego) $1.00 $0.45 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [QİLİX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Q%C4%B0L%C4%B0X) $1.00 $1.22 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Sticker | Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) [botvok2013](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/botvok2013) $1.00 $1.89 1.89x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Luiz Jácinto Leite Cápelo Rego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luiz%20J%C3%A1cinto%20Leite%20C%C3%A1pelo%20Rego) $1.00 $0.41 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [QİLİX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Q%C4%B0L%C4%B0X) $1.00 $1.22 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [botvok2013](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/botvok2013) $1.00 $0.63 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Luiz Jácinto Leite Cápelo Rego](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Luiz%20J%C3%A1cinto%20Leite%20C%C3%A1pelo%20Rego) $1.00 $0.39 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [QİLİX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Q%C4%B0L%C4%B0X) $1.00 $0.39 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $1.00 $1.00 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Myo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Myo) $1.00 $0.41 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.00 | 88.30% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.00 | 88.51% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 89.29% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% restricted 4.5% pink 4.0% classified 0.1% rare 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% blueLight 0.4% light blue 0.4% violet 38.0% blue 14.0% gray 30.1% #4b69ff 8.5% best hit $432 (432.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt