---
title: "PUMPKIN SPICE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "PUMPKIN SPICE ($2.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.31% from 41 items with odds, observed 83.65% over 199K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [PUMPKIN SPICE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · PUMPKIN SPICE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 87.31% · EV $2.18 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.65% · 199K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83.45% ±0.93 139K openings

30 days · 83.65% ±0.77 199K openings

since tracking started · 83.65% ±0.77 199K openings

82.0% 85.0% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.88% – 84.42%, 198,525 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=7d) | 139K | 83.45% ±0.93 | −8.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice) | 199K | 83.65% ±0.77 | −9.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/pumpkin-spice?window=all) | 199K | 83.65% ±0.77 | −9.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 199K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $519 | 0.7% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $215 | 0.7% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $138 | 0.6% | 15 | 19.9 | 0.75× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $102 | 0.9% | 27 | 39.8 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $71.02 | 0.7% | 25 | 39.8 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $42.27 | 0.6% | 41 | 59.7 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.82 | 0.1% | 10 | 19.9 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $22.80 | 0.2% | 20 | 39.8 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.88 | 0.2% | 31 | 39.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $18.39 | 0.2% | 20 | 39.8 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $18.15 | 0.2% | 12 | 39.8 | 0.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $17.65 | 0.2% | 25 | 39.8 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $17.59 | 0.2% | 19 | 39.8 | 0.48× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.38 | 0.1% | 19 | 39.8 | 0.48× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.02 | 0.1% | 22 | 39.8 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $9.73 | 2.3% | 566 | 1014.6 | 0.56× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $7.50 | 3.6% | 1,676 | 2069.1 | 0.81× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $7.01 | 3.6% | 1,679 | 2228.2 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 323 | $6.67 | 0.9% | 346 | 616.7 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $6.61 | 1.0% | 321 | 636.6 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 175 | $6.18 | 1.6% | 437 | 1134.0 | 0.39× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $5.04 | 5.6% | 4,741 | 4814.6 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $4.86 | 0.9% | 643 | 835.6 | 0.77× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.86 | 5.6% | 5,194 | 4993.6 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $4.59 | 5.6% | 5,480 | 5272.2 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $3.84 | 2.7% | 2,076 | 3024.0 | 0.69× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.55 | 3.4% | 2,435 | 4098.4 | 0.59× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.14 | 6.4% | 8,796 | 8913.0 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.84 | 6.5% | 9,239 | 9867.9 | 0.94× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.76 | 6.4% | 9,638 | 10146.5 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.90 | 4.6% | 10,109 | 10544.4 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 19 | $1.89 | 4.6% | 10,780 | 10544.4 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.33 | 3.7% | 11,914 | 12215.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.25 | 3.6% | 12,346 | 12494.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) | 1 in 16 | $1.21 | 3.5% | 13,481 | 12633.3 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.19 | 3.5% | 12,872 | 12772.6 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.16 | 3.4% | 12,450 | 12911.9 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.97 | 2.6% | 7,218 | 11519.2 | 0.63× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.92 | 3.0% | 14,947 | 14145.3 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Hypnoteyes sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnoteyes) | 1 in 14 | $0.91 | 3.0% | 15,685 | 14145.3 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.80 | 2.7% | 15,411 | 14841.7 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/pumpkin-spice`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $2.50 $519 207.7x 2026-11-08 22:44 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $2.50 $519 207.7x 2026-11-08 22:41 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2.50 $513 205.3x 2026-11-03 21:14 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2.50 $513 205.3x 2026-11-03 20:58 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $215 86.18x 2026-11-08 21:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $215 86.18x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) Hidden $2.50 $215 86.18x 2026-11-08 10:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) [-2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-2) $2.50 $204 81.73x 2026-11-04 12:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) [33](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/33) $2.50 $201 80.56x 2026-11-05 03:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) [FOREK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FOREK) $2.50 $198 79.18x 2026-11-07 18:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=pumpkin-spice)

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $1.33 0.53x 2026-11-09 14:13 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [ergyulovv](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ergyulovv) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $0.92 0.37x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $0.92 0.37x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $0.92 0.37x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [immo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/immo) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

[Sticker | Flex sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flex) [Nechko4K](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nechko4K) $2.50 $1.21 0.48x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.50 | 87.31% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.66% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.50 | 87.44% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.50 | 87.66% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.50 | 87.38% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.50 | 87.76% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.50 | 87.56% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.50 | 87.29% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.50 | 87.30% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.50 | 87.51% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.50 | 87.79% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.50 | 87.10% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.50 | 87.73% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.0% sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% pink 10.4% classified 0.7% Legendary 0.5% blue 17.4% #d32ee6 0.3% violet 34.2% gray 30.6% grey 5.8% best hit $519 (207.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.31 on average: an expected loss of $12.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt