---
title: "RADIANT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RADIANT ($25.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 6 items with odds, observed 86.02% over 10.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RADIANT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RADIANT

A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $21.87 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.02% · 10.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.80% ±14.59 1,542 openings

7 days · 85.76% ±6.35 8,169 openings

30 days · 86.02% ±5.65 10.3K openings

since tracking started · 86.02% ±5.65 10.3K openings

68.5% 83.8% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=24h) | 1,542 | 83.80% ±14.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=7d) | 8,169 | 85.76% ±6.35 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant) | 10.3K | 86.02% ±5.65 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/radiant?window=all) | 10.3K | 86.02% ±5.65 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,930 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $688 | 24.5% | 81 | 80.6 | 1.01× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $173 | 24.3% | 305 | 317.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $101 | 24.4% | 552 | 545.3 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $54.81 | 24.4% | 1,035 | 1004.8 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 81.1% | $0.39 | 1.4% | 8,353 | 8378.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/radiant`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $1,930 77.19x 2026-11-09 17:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Black Eagle](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Black%20Eagle) $25.00 $703 28.13x 2026-11-03 11:18 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Black Eagle](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Black%20Eagle) $25.00 $703 28.13x 2026-11-03 11:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Black Eagle](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Black%20Eagle) $25.00 $703 28.13x 2026-11-03 11:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $703 28.12x 2026-11-03 01:09 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $703 28.12x 2026-11-02 23:42 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $703 28.12x 2026-11-02 22:27 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $703 28.12x 2026-11-02 22:02 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $695 27.81x 2026-11-07 00:56 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [JNN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JNN) $25.00 $695 27.81x 2026-11-06 19:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=radiant)

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $25.00 $0.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [Elsyrus Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Elsyrus%20Montana) $25.00 $0.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $54.06 2.16x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [PAU HENRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU%20HENRY) $25.00 $0.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [PAU HENRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU%20HENRY) $25.00 $0.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:10 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $25.00 $54.81 2.19x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.49% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 87.13% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 87.02% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.32% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 87.24% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.37% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.70% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.29% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 87.21% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.72% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $25.00 | 87.14% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 88.00% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.45% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% epic 0.8% covert 18.1% violet 81.1% best hit $1,930 (77.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt