---
title: "RATS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RATS ($1.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 84.13% over 5,225 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RATS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RATS

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.57 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.13% · 5,225 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.48% ±9.70 724 openings

7 days · 83.99% ±4.30 4,391 openings

30 days · 84.13% ±3.88 5,225 openings

since tracking started · 84.13% ±3.88 5,225 openings

70.0% 80.5% 91.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=24h) | 724 | 80.48% ±9.70 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=7d) | 4,391 | 83.99% ±4.30 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats) | 5,225 | 84.13% ±3.88 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rats?window=all) | 5,225 | 84.13% ±3.88 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,228 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $54.24 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $48.05 | 1.4% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.70× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $41.69 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,205 | $25.94 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 952 | $20.29 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $19.46 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.57 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $9.69 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $7.69 | 0.4% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 478 | $6.43 | 0.9% | 4 | 10.9 | 0.37× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 158 | $6.18 | 2.5% | 38 | 33.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $5.57 | 2.5% | 38 | 36.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $5.33 | 2.5% | 45 | 38.4 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $5.30 | 2.5% | 44 | 38.6 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $4.95 | 2.5% | 63 | 41.3 | 1.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $4.53 | 2.5% | 61 | 45.1 | 1.35× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 13 | $2.84 | 13.7% | 297 | 398.2 | 0.75× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $2.72 | 4.5% | 286 | 135.2 | 2.12× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-well-worn) | 15.3% | $2.60 | 25.2% | 293 | 798.8 | 0.37× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.60 | 3.1% | 86 | 159.1 | 0.54× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.48 | 3.2% | 109 | 177.4 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $1.37 | 2.9% | 120 | 175.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.36 | 2.9% | 109 | 177.2 | 0.62× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.31 | 3.8% | 154 | 242.0 | 0.64× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $0.79 | 0.7% | 53 | 69.2 | 0.77× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.76 | 1.2% | 92 | 132.8 | 0.69× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.66 | 1.3% | 105 | 161.8 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.63 | 1.3% | 110 | 172.7 | 0.64× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.45 | 0.8% | 102 | 152.1 | 0.67× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.45 | 3.0% | 630 | 549.7 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.45 | 3.0% | 594 | 549.7 | 1.08× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 98 | 156.9 | 0.62× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 93 | 156.9 | 0.59× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.38 | 2.7% | 624 | 588.1 | 1.06× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/rats`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=rats)

[Negev | dev\_texture weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.80 $0.49 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.80 $0.45 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.80 $0.45 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[MAC-10 | Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.80 $4.95 2.75x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.80 $0.68 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) Hidden $1.80 $0.45 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) Hidden $1.80 $1.37 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-well-worn) Hidden $1.80 $2.78 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hydraulics-well-worn) Hidden $1.80 $2.78 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) Hidden $1.80 $1.42 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.80 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.80 | 87.06% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.80 | 86.70% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.80 | 87.40% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.80 | 87.19% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.80 | 87.03% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.80 | 87.63% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.80 | 87.40% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.80 | 87.93% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.80 | 87.05% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.80 | 87.06% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.80 | 87.29% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.80 | 87.26% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.80 | 87.32% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.80 | 87.58% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.80 | 87.34% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.80 | 86.66% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.1% restricted 6.0% classified 1.4% #d32ee6 0.1% Mythical 2.6% violet 50.3% Legendary 0.7% pink 0.7% mil spec 0.8% #8847ff 25.9% gray 11.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt