--- title: "RAZOR JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "RAZOR JOKER ($154.47) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.32% over 682 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T07:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RAZOR JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RAZOR JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=all) Price · $154.47 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.32% · 682 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 252 openings · below min 7 days · 520 openings · below min 30 days · 682 openings · below min since tracking started · 682 openings · below min 52.0% 78.0% 104.0% **Small sample.** 682 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=24h) | 252 | 77.94% ±25.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=7d) | 520 | 71.83% ±16.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker) | 682 | 79.32% ±16.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor-joker?window=all) | 682 | 79.32% ±16.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $154 $1,793 11.61x 2026-11-02 22:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [rick](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rick) $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-07 23:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Crimson](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Crimson) $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 21:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [CoinL\_\_\_400Hz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CoinL___400Hz) $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 10:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 03:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 03:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 03:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-05 03:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-04 22:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $152 $1,762 11.61x 2026-11-04 17:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=razor-joker) [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) [GUCCI peeRa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GUCCI%20peeRa) $149 $118 0.79x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) [GUCCI peeRa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GUCCI%20peeRa) $148 $131 0.89x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $148 $40.00 0.27x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $148 $64.06 0.43x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) Hidden $148 $4.79 0.03x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) Hidden $148 $131 0.89x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $148 $16.66 0.11x 2026-11-12 06:28 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [JAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JAY) $149 $3.84 0.03x 2026-11-12 02:20 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [JAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/JAY) $148 $3.93 0.03x 2026-11-12 02:19 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $148 $68.15 0.46x 2026-11-12 02:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,793 (11.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.32 on average: an expected loss of $20.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt