---
title: "RAZOR case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "RAZOR ($8.69) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 81.93% over 5,004 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RAZOR](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RAZOR

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=all)

Price · $8.69

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.60 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.93% · 5,004 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.73% ±17.11 795 openings

7 days · 81.73% ±7.13 4,403 openings

30 days · 81.93% ±6.69 5,004 openings

since tracking started · 81.93% ±6.69 5,004 openings

71.0% 88.8% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=24h) | 795 | 88.73% ±17.1 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=7d) | 4,403 | 81.73% ±7.13 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor) | 5,004 | 81.93% ±6.69 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/razor?window=all) | 5,004 | 81.93% ±6.69 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,009 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,697 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · sunny · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,667 | $244 | 1.9% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 | 1.8% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 909 | $125 | 1.8% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 833 | $114 | 1.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $111 | 1.9% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 769 | $110 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $81.04 | 1.8% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $68.49 | 1.8% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 476 | $65.58 | 1.8% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $63.61 | 1.8% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $63.39 | 1.8% | 4 | 11.0 | 0.36× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $39.89 | 1.8% | 12 | 17.5 | 0.68× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $20.70 | 13.2% | 271 | 242.9 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.79 | 6.3% | 115 | 152.8 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $15.12 | 13.2% | 310 | 332.6 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $14.53 | 6.9% | 125 | 180.3 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $6.39 | 3.1% | 142 | 186.3 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $6.24 | 2.3% | 125 | 142.8 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $6.11 | 2.4% | 97 | 147.3 | 0.66× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $6.02 | 2.4% | 95 | 150.3 | 0.63× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $4.82 | 6.1% | 488 | 484.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $4.71 | 3.5% | 220 | 281.5 | 0.78× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 10.3% | $4.15 | 5.6% | 488 | 513.9 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 12.8% | $2.40 | 4.0% | 639 | 640.2 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 13.9% | $1.96 | 3.6% | 721 | 694.2 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 15.1% | $1.56 | 3.1% | 754 | 757.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/razor`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=razor)

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $8.69 $15.12 1.74x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $8.69 $1.96 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $8.69 $1.56 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [nusuntian #ianixxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/nusuntian%20%23ianixxx) $8.69 $4.15 0.48x 2026-11-11 11:26 UTC

[G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $8.69 $4.82 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $8.69 $4.79 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) Hidden $8.69 $6.45 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $8.69 $4.08 0.47x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $8.69 $1.96 0.23x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream) [Barbituricoo!](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Barbituricoo!) $8.69 $15.11 1.74x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $8.69 | 87.50% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $8.69 | 86.89% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $8.69 | 87.52% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $8.69 | 87.81% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $8.69 | 87.21% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.69 | 87.10% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $8.69 | 87.52% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $8.69 | 87.53% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $8.69 | 87.39% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $8.69 | 87.64% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $8.69 | 87.44% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $8.69 | 87.25% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $8.69 | 87.25% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $8.69 | 87.89% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $8.69 | 88.03% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $8.69 | 88.02% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.69 | 86.89% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.3% sunny 0.1% red 0.1% gold 0.2% mil spec 0.4% classified 20.3% Legendary 6.6% pink 19.6% gray 23.5% blue 12.8% violet 15.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt