--- title: "RED SILK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "RED SILK ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 82.38% over 59.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RED SILK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RED SILK A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=all) Price · $3.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.63 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.38% · 59.1K openings, odds method Variance · 31.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 85 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.21% ±12.19 8,382 openings 7 days · 83.05% ±5.01 50.2K openings 30 days · 82.38% ±4.62 59.1K openings since tracking started · 82.38% ±4.62 59.1K openings 73.5% 86.3% 99.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.76% – 87.00%, 59,090 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=24h) | 8,382 | 86.21% ±12.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=7d) | 50.2K | 83.05% ±5.01 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk) | 59.1K | 82.38% ±4.62 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/red-silk?window=all) | 59.1K | 82.38% ±4.62 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $581 | 4.4% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $312 | 4.8% | 27 | 23.7 | 1.14× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $233 | 5.3% | 30 | 35.5 | 0.84× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $167 | 7.0% | 84 | 65.1 | 1.29× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $141 | 7.0% | 103 | 77.0 | 1.34× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $123 | 7.0% | 93 | 88.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $98.21 | 7.1% | 73 | 112.5 | 0.65× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $93.09 | 7.1% | 90 | 118.4 | 0.76× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $70.42 | 7.2% | 107 | 159.8 | 0.67× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 278 | $51.91 | 7.1% | 128 | 213.1 | 0.60× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $47.03 | 7.2% | 121 | 236.8 | 0.51× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $37.64 | 6.2% | 238 | 254.6 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 10.6% | $1.56 | 6.3% | 7,677 | 6263.5 | 1.23× | | [SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-well-worn) | 10.6% | $1.22 | 4.9% | 7,799 | 6269.4 | 1.24× | | [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 12.7% | $0.66 | 3.2% | 8,069 | 7536.3 | 1.07× | | [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 12.9% | $0.63 | 3.1% | 8,344 | 7642.8 | 1.09× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 14.7% | $0.41 | 2.3% | 8,512 | 8690.7 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 16.6% | $0.27 | 1.7% | 8,679 | 9851.0 | 0.88× | | [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-minimal-wear) | 19.5% | $0.14 | 1.0% | 9,016 | 11550.1 | 0.78× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/red-silk`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $589 196.3x 2026-11-03 20:36 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) [Nhess](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nhess) $3.00 $583 194.3x 2026-11-06 18:21 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $583 194.3x 2026-11-06 03:26 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) [EgyetlenDan1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EgyetlenDan1) $3.00 $583 194.3x 2026-11-06 00:29 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $581 193.8x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $581 193.6x 2026-11-04 19:51 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $3.00 $577 192.2x 2026-11-08 06:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $3.00 $577 192.2x 2026-11-08 06:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $577 192.2x 2026-11-07 19:55 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $577 192.2x 2026-11-07 16:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=red-silk) [Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) [poganyhaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/poganyhaze) $3.00 $0.27 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $3.00 $0.41 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $3.00 $0.27 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $3.00 $0.41 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $0.27 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $1.51 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.41 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $3.00 $0.41 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [AnkhuushMeisterBerg](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnkhuushMeisterBerg) $3.00 $0.66 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-minimal-wear) [shinbol007](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shinbol007) $3.00 $0.14 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 19 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.93% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 87.31% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.04% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.70% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.32% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.60% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.46% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.41% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.71% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 19 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 19 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.94% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 88.00% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 86.99% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.38% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% gold 0.6% Immortal 0.1% epic 0.2% covert 0.8% rare 0.2% Ancient 0.4% Mythical 10.6% violet 38.0% blue 49.1% best hit $589 (196.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt