--- title: "RESTRICTED JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "RESTRICTED JOKER ($38.32) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.61% over 972 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RESTRICTED JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RESTRICTED JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=all) Price · $38.32 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.61% · 972 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 149 openings · below min 7 days · 669 openings · below min 30 days · 972 openings · below min since tracking started · 972 openings · below min 65.5% 172.3% 279.0% **Small sample.** 972 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=24h) | 149 | 187.23% ±91.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=7d) | 669 | 95.79% ±29.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker) | 972 | 89.61% ±23.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted-joker?window=all) | 972 | 89.61% ±23.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 22:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 22:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 20:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [EzQueL](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EzQueL) $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 18:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [EzQueL](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EzQueL) $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 18:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 18:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $38.51 $802 20.82x 2026-11-03 18:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [EXCEL](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EXCEL) $38.30 $801 20.92x 2026-11-08 14:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [EXCEL](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EXCEL) $38.30 $801 20.92x 2026-11-08 14:15 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $38.30 $801 20.92x 2026-11-06 17:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=restricted-joker) [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.92 $0.44 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.24 $2.55 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.24 $0.44 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.92 $794 20.94x 2026-11-11 16:01 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.92 $12.73 0.34x 2026-11-11 16:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Cat Fight weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight) [ERgami\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ERgami_CS2.ME) $37.92 $0.99 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) Hidden $37.24 $2.70 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.24 $787 21.12x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $37.24 $0.42 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $37.24 $9.24 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $802 (20.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.61 on average: an expected loss of $10.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt