---
title: "RESTRICTED case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "RESTRICTED ($2.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 60 items with odds, observed 83.73% over 10.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [RESTRICTED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · RESTRICTED

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.75 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.73% · 10.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.98% ±16.43 916 openings

7 days · 83.36% ±4.97 9,166 openings

30 days · 83.73% ±4.57 10.8K openings

since tracking started · 83.73% ±4.57 10.8K openings

65.0% 82.0% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=24h) | 916 | 81.98% ±16.4 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=7d) | 9,166 | 83.36% ±4.97 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted) | 10.8K | 83.73% ±4.57 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/restricted?window=all) | 10.8K | 83.73% ±4.57 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $787 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $62.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $44.77 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $29.99 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $29.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $26.83 | 0.4% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $16.56 | 1.2% | 11 | 13.9 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $9.72 | 0.3% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 457 | $9.69 | 1.2% | 8 | 23.7 | 0.34× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 403 | $8.56 | 1.2% | 21 | 26.8 | 0.78× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 324 | $7.47 | 1.3% | 10 | 33.4 | 0.30× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $5.67 | 12.5% | 404 | 415.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $5.50 | 3.5% | 73 | 120.7 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $4.33 | 5.8% | 156 | 252.1 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $4.30 | 5.8% | 152 | 255.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $3.26 | 5.0% | 176 | 290.1 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $3.25 | 5.0% | 177 | 292.0 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $3.23 | 1.8% | 53 | 105.9 | 0.50× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $2.72 | 1.5% | 73 | 105.3 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $2.67 | 2.0% | 70 | 139.9 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.58 | 5.2% | 352 | 382.1 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.49 | 5.2% | 365 | 395.9 | 0.92× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.45 | 5.2% | 391 | 402.3 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $2.11 | 1.6% | 98 | 147.4 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $2.04 | 1.7% | 89 | 157.8 | 0.56× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $1.86 | 1.2% | 78 | 118.5 | 0.66× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 232 | $1.65 | 0.4% | 34 | 46.6 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 178 | $1.62 | 0.5% | 40 | 60.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.54 | 3.0% | 361 | 362.4 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.51 | 2.9% | 362 | 365.3 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.31 | 1.6% | 135 | 233.3 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $1.28 | 0.7% | 68 | 110.4 | 0.62× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $1.28 | 0.8% | 71 | 124.7 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $1.27 | 0.7% | 62 | 111.6 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $1.13 | 0.8% | 68 | 131.4 | 0.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $1.01 | 0.5% | 49 | 86.8 | 0.56× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.97 | 2.2% | 435 | 436.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.82 | 2.0% | 466 | 466.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.80 | 0.5% | 53 | 120.3 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.79 | 0.5% | 58 | 122.5 | 0.47× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.75 | 0.7% | 121 | 178.1 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $0.72 | 0.5% | 73 | 139.5 | 0.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.69 | 0.8% | 125 | 217.1 | 0.58× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.62 | 0.6% | 104 | 182.9 | 0.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.60 | 0.8% | 139 | 243.5 | 0.57× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.60 | 1.1% | 221 | 359.7 | 0.61× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $0.60 | 0.3% | 64 | 99.4 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.53 | 0.9% | 220 | 314.1 | 0.70× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.50 | 0.5% | 133 | 172.2 | 0.77× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 116 | 184.2 | 0.63× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.45 | 0.5% | 107 | 199.5 | 0.54× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.45 | 0.5% | 123 | 195.7 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.44 | 1.4% | 692 | 598.1 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.42 | 0.7% | 198 | 315.5 | 0.63× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.42 | 0.4% | 98 | 163.8 | 0.60× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $0.42 | 0.4% | 91 | 163.8 | 0.56× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 118 | 219.8 | 0.54× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 133 | 215.6 | 0.62× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.41 | 0.4% | 92 | 171.2 | 0.54× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/restricted`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=restricted)

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $2.00 $1.68 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) [KeBartek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KeBartek) $2.00 $0.97 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech) [BatmanV8](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BatmanV8) $2.00 $0.45 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.00 $2.45 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.00 $2.42 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.75 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.44 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.41 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $2.00 $0.45 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) [mɅck](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m%C9%85ck) $2.00 $0.42 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.00 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.00 | 86.83% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.00 | 87.37% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 87.35% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.00 | 86.79% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.00 | 86.54% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.00 | 87.42% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.00 | 87.12% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.00 | 87.48% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.65% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.00 | 87.29% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.00 | 87.48% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.00 | 87.96% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.00 | 87.45% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.00 | 87.55% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.00 | 87.40% | 60 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.00 | 87.38% | 60 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% restricted 18.7% Mythical 6.8% violet 59.4% #8847ff 14.0% uncommon 1.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt