--- title: "REVOLUTION case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "REVOLUTION ($5.35) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 83.46% over 6,214 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution rendered: 2026-11-11T15:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [REVOLUTION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · REVOLUTION A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=all) Price · $5.35 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.68 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.46% · 6,214 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.77% ±20.50 626 openings 7 days · 83.88% ±7.47 4,677 openings 30 days · 83.46% ±6.45 6,214 openings since tracking started · 83.46% ±6.45 6,214 openings 70.5% 91.8% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=24h) | 626 | 91.77% ±20.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=7d) | 4,677 | 83.88% ±7.47 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution) | 6,214 | 83.46% ±6.45 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/revolution?window=all) | 6,214 | 83.46% ±6.45 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,219 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $380 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $136 | 14.5% | 24 | 31.1 | 0.77× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $49.30 | 14.5% | 82 | 85.8 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $46.42 | 14.6% | 93 | 91.4 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $17.29 | 14.6% | 310 | 245.0 | 1.27× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.90 | 14.5% | 295 | 304.7 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $5.41 | 14.5% | 658 | 783.0 | 0.84× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $2.39 | 6.6% | 705 | 800.4 | 0.88× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 16.0% | $0.79 | 2.7% | 1,003 | 996.3 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 18.5% | $0.38 | 1.5% | 1,141 | 1153.0 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 27.8% | $0.05 | 0.3% | 1,908 | 1727.0 | 1.10× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/revolution`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=revolution) [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.79 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.79 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $5.35 $0.79 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $5.35 $0.79 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.35 $2.39 0.45x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.79 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) [clarocox](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/clarocox) $5.35 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) Hidden $5.35 $0.38 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $5.35 | 87.50% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.35 | 87.50% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.35 | 87.83% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.35 | 87.37% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.35 | 87.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.35 | 87.28% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.35 | 87.62% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.35 | 87.77% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.35 | 87.63% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.35 | 87.37% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.35 | 87.03% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.35 | 87.27% | 11 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.35 | 87.45% | 11 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.35 | 87.73% | 11 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.35 | 87.89% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.35 | 87.56% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.35 | 87.40% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.35 | 88.02% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% red 0.5% covert 2.8% uncommon 3.9% Legendary 4.9% Mythical 12.6% restricted 12.9% #8847ff 16.0% Mil Spec 18.5% blue 27.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt