--- title: "ROCKET case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "ROCKET ($4.05) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 5 items with odds, observed 97.81% over 8,651 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ROCKET](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ROCKET A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=all) Price · $4.05 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.54 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.81% · 8,651 openings, odds method Variance · 59.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 60 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.36% ±48.56 972 openings 7 days · 99.60% ±19.38 6,403 openings 30 days · 97.81% ±16.71 8,651 openings since tracking started · 97.81% ±16.71 8,651 openings 49.0% 98.3% 147.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=24h) | 972 | 98.36% ±48.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=7d) | 6,403 | 99.60% ±19.4 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket) | 8,651 | 97.81% ±16.7 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/rocket?window=all) | 8,651 | 97.81% ±16.7 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,680 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,003 | 5.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 341 | $379 | 31.3% | 27 | 25.4 | 1.06× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $80.48 | 31.3% | 103 | 119.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $70.44 | 31.2% | 128 | 136.4 | 0.94× | | [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 96.7% | $0.02 | 0.5% | 8,419 | 8397.8 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/rocket`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $4.05 $2,066 510.1x 2026-11-03 12:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $4.05 $2,038 503.2x 2026-11-09 00:37 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Pengu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pengu) $4.05 $2,038 503.2x 2026-11-09 00:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $388 95.84x 2026-11-03 01:26 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $387 95.58x 2026-11-03 19:43 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $387 95.58x 2026-11-03 15:55 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $387 95.58x 2026-11-03 12:07 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $387 95.58x 2026-11-03 12:00 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $4.05 $383 94.53x 2026-11-08 20:53 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $4.05 $383 94.53x 2026-11-08 17:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=rocket) [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [elSimione](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elSimione) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [RRUSHITOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RRUSHITOO) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [RRUSHITOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RRUSHITOO) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [RRUSHITOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RRUSHITOO) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $80.48 19.87x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) [Kscerato da Temu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kscerato%20da%20Temu) $4.05 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.05 | 87.50% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.05 | 87.87% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.05 | 87.36% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.05 | 87.21% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.05 | 87.54% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.05 | 87.64% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.05 | 87.45% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.05 | 87.65% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.05 | 87.50% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.05 | 87.18% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.05 | 87.88% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.05 | 87.78% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.05 | 87.57% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.05 | 87.76% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.05 | 87.45% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.05 | 87.30% | 5 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.05 | 87.17% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% gray 96.7% best hit $2,066 (510.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt