--- title: "ROYAL JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ROYAL JOKER ($85.99) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.89% over 2,131 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T04:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ROYAL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ROYAL JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=all) Price · $85.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.89% · 2,131 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 464 openings · below min 7 days · 86.22% ±7.05 1,728 openings 30 days · 88.89% ±6.47 2,131 openings since tracking started · 88.89% ±6.47 2,131 openings 75.0% 90.0% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=24h) | 464 | 90.10% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=7d) | 1,728 | 86.22% ±7.05 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker) | 2,131 | 88.89% ±6.47 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal-joker?window=all) | 2,131 | 88.89% ±6.47 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [√Sir Gregor Clegane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%88%9ASir%20Gregor%20Clegane) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-08 21:13 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [KoCO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KoCO) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-07 18:32 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [twitch.tv/lupycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Flupycs) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-07 03:27 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [twitch.tv/lupycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Flupycs) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-07 03:27 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [BigJota](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BigJota) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-06 19:41 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [S](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-06 04:33 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [whoyouboww](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/whoyouboww) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-05 19:29 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [glaster51](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/glaster51) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-05 12:28 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [S](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S) $85.45 $586 6.86x 2026-11-05 10:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=royal-joker) [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [HAPPY.\_.TESLA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HAPPY._.TESLA) $83.27 $2.52 0.03x 2026-11-12 02:37 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $10.55 0.13x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $310 3.72x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $2.52 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $2.52 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $3.84 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $4.36 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [AK-47 | Cartel weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $18.02 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:40 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $134 1.61x 2026-11-12 00:40 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [RS8\_JokEr10217](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS8_JokEr10217) $83.27 $3.86 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $586 (6.86x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt