---
title: "ROYAL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "ROYAL ($11.84) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 42 items with odds, observed 84.31% over 26.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ROYAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ROYAL

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=all)

Price · $11.84

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.36 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.31% · 26.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.98% ±3.52 3,805 openings

7 days · 83.70% ±1.49 21.4K openings

30 days · 84.31% ±1.36 26.1K openings

since tracking started · 84.31% ±1.36 26.1K openings

80.0% 84.0% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.95% – 85.66%, 26,107 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=24h) | 3,805 | 83.98% ±3.52 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=7d) | 21.4K | 83.70% ±1.49 | −4.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal) | 26.1K | 84.31% ±1.36 | −4.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/royal?window=all) | 26.1K | 84.31% ±1.36 | −4.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $572 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $312 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $137 | 0.7% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $132 | 0.6% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $82.85 | 0.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $64.79 | 0.6% | 28 | 26.1 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $58.32 | 0.2% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $55.37 | 0.6% | 35 | 31.4 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $54.81 | 0.2% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $54.51 | 0.2% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $54.15 | 0.2% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $53.32 | 0.2% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $50.31 | 0.6% | 29 | 34.0 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $49.30 | 0.7% | 35 | 36.6 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $43.82 | 3.3% | 84 | 201.3 | 0.42× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $42.18 | 2.8% | 112 | 180.3 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $41.68 | 2.9% | 102 | 185.6 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $41.37 | 2.9% | 143 | 188.2 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $33.96 | 3.9% | 218 | 311.0 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $33.60 | 2.6% | 139 | 209.1 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $29.96 | 2.9% | 197 | 261.4 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $29.03 | 4.6% | 281 | 426.0 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $28.91 | 3.0% | 188 | 282.3 | 0.67× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $21.86 | 4.0% | 342 | 491.4 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $19.44 | 4.1% | 409 | 564.6 | 0.72× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $19.19 | 4.5% | 431 | 637.7 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $17.89 | 4.4% | 417 | 666.5 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $15.31 | 3.6% | 345 | 643.0 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $15.28 | 3.6% | 387 | 645.6 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $14.83 | 3.8% | 367 | 684.8 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $13.55 | 2.6% | 309 | 514.9 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $12.59 | 2.8% | 362 | 595.9 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $12.38 | 2.8% | 358 | 616.8 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $12.18 | 2.9% | 352 | 637.7 | 0.55× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $10.78 | 4.0% | 590 | 993.2 | 0.59× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $10.24 | 3.7% | 686 | 980.1 | 0.70× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.15 | 1.9% | 899 | 1244.1 | 0.72× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 10.5% | $4.11 | 4.2% | 2,828 | 2754.8 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 10.7% | $3.96 | 4.1% | 2,975 | 2796.7 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.44 | 2.1% | 1,018 | 1617.9 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 12.5% | $2.67 | 3.2% | 3,527 | 3272.4 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) | 12.7% | $2.43 | 3.0% | 3,249 | 3319.4 | 0.98× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/royal`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $11.84 $580 48.96x 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=royal)

[M4A1-S | Guardian weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $31.11 2.63x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $2.67 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $2.43 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $11.84 $4.14 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $33.70 2.85x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $2.67 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) Hidden $11.84 $3.44 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) Hidden $11.84 $15.29 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) [Tiaguinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Tiaguinho) $11.84 $2.40 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-field-tested) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $11.84 $2.43 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $11.84 | 87.50% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $11.84 | 87.35% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $11.84 | 87.12% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.84 | 87.38% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $11.84 | 87.65% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $11.84 | 87.20% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $11.84 | 87.48% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $11.84 | 87.40% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $11.84 | 87.49% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $11.84 | 87.31% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $11.84 | 87.87% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $11.84 | 87.18% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $11.84 | 87.51% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.84 | 87.29% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $11.84 | 87.56% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $11.84 | 87.04% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.84 | 87.46% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.6% epic 0.0% red 0.8% sunny 0.1% rare 0.1% classified 33.2% pink 27.3% violet 23.2% consumer 12.7% best hit $580 (48.96x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt