---
title: "SACRED LOTUS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SACRED LOTUS ($135.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 90.63% over 6,472 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SACRED LOTUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SACRED LOTUS

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=all)

Price · $135.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $118.12 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.63% · 6,472 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.91% ±17.44 1,379 openings

7 days · 93.84% ±9.70 4,990 openings

30 days · 90.63% ±8.50 6,472 openings

since tracking started · 90.63% ±8.50 6,472 openings

80.0% 98.0% 116.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=24h) | 1,379 | 97.91% ±17.4 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=7d) | 4,990 | 93.84% ±9.70 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus) | 6,472 | 90.63% ±8.50 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sacred-lotus?window=all) | 6,472 | 90.63% ±8.50 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,472 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $9,502 | 5.6% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $4,123 | 5.9% | 25 | 11.0 | 2.27× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $2,803 | 5.9% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.17× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 303 | $2,088 | 5.8% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 233 | $1,587 | 5.8% | 25 | 27.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,390 | 5.9% | 34 | 32.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $1,331 | 5.9% | 30 | 33.7 | 0.89× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $1,107 | 5.8% | 30 | 40.1 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $787 | 5.8% | 40 | 56.3 | 0.71× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 108 | $743 | 5.8% | 57 | 60.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 84 | $580 | 5.8% | 53 | 77.0 | 0.69× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 83 | $572 | 5.8% | 56 | 77.7 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $383 | 5.8% | 96 | 115.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $87.70 | 6.6% | 658 | 572.8 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $79.71 | 6.1% | 649 | 582.5 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 10.1% | $54.83 | 4.7% | 748 | 651.1 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 13.1% | $22.82 | 2.5% | 824 | 847.2 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 15.0% | $14.58 | 1.8% | 979 | 969.5 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $10.33 | 1.5% | 975 | 1075.0 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 18.5% | $7.01 | 1.1% | 1,148 | 1199.9 | 0.96× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sacred-lotus`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $135 $9,986 73.97x 2026-11-05 14:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $135 $9,954 73.74x 2026-11-03 05:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $135 $9,718 71.98x 2026-11-08 01:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $135 $9,502 70.38x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $135 $9,501 70.38x 2026-11-10 07:28 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) [Use Code Yosoykush 5000 LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Use%20Code%20Yosoykush%205000%20%20LB) $135 $4,284 31.73x 2026-11-05 04:14 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) [Use Code Yosoykush 5000 LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Use%20Code%20Yosoykush%205000%20%20LB) $135 $4,284 31.73x 2026-11-05 04:13 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $135 $4,282 31.72x 2026-11-04 05:04 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $135 $4,282 31.72x 2026-11-03 09:41 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $135 $4,243 31.43x 2026-11-05 14:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sacred-lotus)

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $135 $87.70 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $135 $743 5.50x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $135 $54.83 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $135 $14.58 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $135 $54.83 0.41x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-minimal-wear) [xani](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xani) $135 $10.33 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) [xani](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xani) $135 $79.71 0.59x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) [xani](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xani) $135 $7.01 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-minimal-wear) [xani](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xani) $135 $10.33 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [xani](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xani) $135 $14.58 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $135 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $135 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $135 | 87.09% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $135 | 87.92% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $135 | 87.27% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $135 | 87.23% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $135 | 87.55% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $135 | 87.38% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $135 | 87.85% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $135 | 87.82% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $135 | 87.45% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $135 | 87.67% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $135 | 87.94% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $135 | 88.00% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $135 | 87.49% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $135 | 87.39% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $135 | 87.61% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $135 | 87.38% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.9% legendary 2.0% rare 14.0% gold 0.9% Ancient 9.0% red 10.1% classified 15.0% violet 16.6% restricted 18.5% best hit $9,986 (73.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt