--- title: "SAMBA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SAMBA ($15.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.99% over 506 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba rendered: 2026-11-11T17:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SAMBA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SAMBA A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=all) Price · $15.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.99% · 506 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 289 openings · below min 30 days · 506 openings · below min since tracking started · 506 openings · below min 57.0% 78.5% 100.0% **Small sample.** 506 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=24h) | 42 | 78.51% ±20.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=7d) | 289 | 88.43% ±8.51 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba) | 506 | 84.99% ±6.25 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/samba?window=all) | 506 | 84.99% ±6.25 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=samba) [M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $15.00 $16.61 1.11x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $4.50 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $4.77 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $15.00 $15.79 1.05x 2026-11-11 16:28 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $15.00 $23.29 1.55x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $15.00 $18.48 1.23x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $4.77 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) Hidden $15.00 $13.04 0.87x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) Hidden $15.00 $3.50 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) [Miguel\_Z1K4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miguel_Z1K4) $15.00 $22.50 1.50x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.99 on average: an expected loss of $15.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt