--- title: "SCARLET CATCH JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SCARLET CATCH JOKER ($1,414.32) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.91% over 2,800 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SCARLET CATCH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SCARLET CATCH JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=all) Price · $1,414.32 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.91% · 2,800 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 83.56% ±8.06 1,163 openings 30 days · 88.91% ±5.47 2,800 openings since tracking started · 88.91% ±5.47 2,800 openings 75.0% 85.0% 95.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=7d) | 1,163 | 83.56% ±8.06 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker) | 2,800 | 88.91% ±5.47 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch-joker?window=all) | 2,800 | 88.91% ±5.47 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:29 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:27 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pie) $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pie) $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,414 $9,878 6.98x 2026-11-02 22:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=scarlet-catch-joker) [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $5,401 3.85x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $469 0.33x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $9,659 6.89x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $136 0.10x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $588 0.42x 2026-11-08 22:26 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $254 0.18x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $254 0.18x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC [Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $137 0.10x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $146 0.10x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $1,402 $314 0.22x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $9,878 (6.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt