---
title: "SCARLET CATCH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SCARLET CATCH ($250.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.12% from 28 items with odds, observed 85.06% over 12.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SCARLET CATCH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SCARLET CATCH

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=all)

Price · $250.00

Advertised RTP · 87.12% · EV $217.81 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.06% · 12.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 84.01% ±1.79 8,294 openings

30 days · 85.06% ±1.47 12.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.06% ±1.47 12.3K openings

81.5% 84.7% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.12% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.59% – 86.53%, 12,325 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=7d) | 8,294 | 84.01% ±1.79 | −3.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch) | 12.3K | 85.06% ±1.47 | −2.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/scarlet-catch?window=all) | 12.3K | 85.06% ±1.47 | −2.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,653 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,749 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,050 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,875 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,659 | 0.3% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,466 | 0.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $1,154 | 0.6% | 9 | 13.8 | 0.65× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,054 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 196 | $876 | 2.1% | 51 | 64.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 73 | $762 | 4.8% | 154 | 172.0 | 0.90× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $738 | 2.3% | 52 | 84.1 | 0.62× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $673 | 2.4% | 46 | 99.2 | 0.46× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $577 | 8.0% | 385 | 380.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 30 | $519 | 7.9% | 434 | 418.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $458 | 8.1% | 479 | 483.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $328 | 5.2% | 463 | 433.1 | 1.07× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $263 | 5.1% | 525 | 533.5 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 22 | $251 | 5.2% | 588 | 563.6 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $249 | 5.1% | 552 | 563.6 | 0.98× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $187 | 6.5% | 1,015 | 951.5 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $156 | 5.7% | 1,004 | 1003.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $144 | 5.4% | 991 | 1029.3 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $136 | 5.2% | 1,082 | 1055.7 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $128 | 5.1% | 1,055 | 1082.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $128 | 5.1% | 1,070 | 1082.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $94.30 | 2.1% | 421 | 610.1 | 0.69× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $91.69 | 2.1% | 406 | 627.7 | 0.65× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 10.2% | $85.83 | 4.0% | 1,313 | 1282.9 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/scarlet-catch`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [THIAGOPEEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THIAGOPEEK) $250 $9,659 38.63x 2026-11-05 01:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $250 $5,401 21.60x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $250 $3,181 12.72x 2026-11-05 14:04 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $250 $1,895 7.58x 2026-11-05 14:46 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $250 $1,895 7.58x 2026-11-05 14:00 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [(YT) USE CODE BETZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28YT%29%20USE%20CODE%20BETZY) $250 $1,895 7.58x 2026-11-03 14:02 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [(YT) USE CODE BETZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28YT%29%20USE%20CODE%20BETZY) $250 $1,895 7.58x 2026-11-03 13:59 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $250 $1,875 7.50x 2026-11-08 18:07 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $250 $1,664 6.66x 2026-11-05 07:49 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $250 $1,656 6.62x 2026-11-05 15:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=scarlet-catch)

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $85.83 0.34x 2026-11-09 08:56 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $156 0.62x 2026-11-09 08:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $85.83 0.34x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $92.98 0.37x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $85.83 0.34x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC

[SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $128 0.51x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC

[Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $136 0.54x 2026-11-09 08:46 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $187 0.75x 2026-11-09 08:46 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $263 1.05x 2026-11-09 08:37 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [NAZARIO\_F9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NAZARIO_F9) $250 $85.83 0.34x 2026-11-09 08:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $250 | 87.12% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $250 | 86.95% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $250 | 86.06% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $250 | 86.01% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $250 | 86.35% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $250 | 86.41% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $250 | 87.40% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $250 | 87.54% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $250 | 87.35% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $250 | 87.58% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $250 | 87.35% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $250 | 87.61% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $250 | 87.72% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.4% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 1.5% restricted 14.7% gold 25.5% pink 8.0% violet 8.4% gray 8.6% blue 18.8% best hit $9,659 (38.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.12 on average: an expected loss of $12.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt