--- title: "SERPENT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SERPENT JOKER ($503.89) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 78.69% over 233 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker rendered: 2026-11-13T19:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SERPENT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SERPENT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=all) Price · $503.89 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 78.69% · 233 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 191 openings · below min 30 days · 233 openings · below min since tracking started · 233 openings · below min 1.5% 55.5% 109.5% **Small sample.** 233 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=24h) | 3 | 44.06% ±42.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=7d) | 191 | 86.86% ±22.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker) | 233 | 78.69% ±18.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent-joker?window=all) | 233 | 78.69% ±18.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $4,044 8.11x 2026-11-12 17:45 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $499 $4,044 8.11x 2026-11-10 09:51 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $495 $4,012 8.10x 2026-11-10 09:50 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $489 $3,920 8.02x 2026-11-12 17:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $489 $3,920 8.02x 2026-11-12 17:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $490 $3,920 8.00x 2026-11-12 10:47 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $490 $3,920 8.00x 2026-11-12 10:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $501 $1,332 2.66x 2026-11-07 08:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $501 $1,332 2.66x 2026-11-07 08:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $1,318 2.64x 2026-11-12 17:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=serpent-joker) [AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $481 $24.01 0.05x 2026-11-13 16:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $481 $380 0.79x 2026-11-13 16:34 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $481 $231 0.48x 2026-11-13 16:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $14.07 0.03x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $69.99 0.14x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $14.07 0.03x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $69.99 0.14x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $499 $231 0.46x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $489 $883 1.81x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $489 $13.48 0.03x 2026-11-12 17:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,044 (8.11x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.69 on average: an expected loss of $21.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt