---
title: "SERPENT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SERPENT ($59.95) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 66 items with odds, observed 86.00% over 3,805 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SERPENT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SERPENT

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=all)

Price · $59.95

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $52.46 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.00% · 3,805 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.76% ±9.11 650 openings

7 days · 86.07% ±4.10 3,197 openings

30 days · 86.00% ±3.76 3,805 openings

since tracking started · 86.00% ±3.76 3,805 openings

74.0% 83.8% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=24h) | 650 | 83.76% ±9.11 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=7d) | 3,197 | 86.07% ±4.10 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent) | 3,805 | 86.00% ±3.76 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/serpent?window=all) | 3,805 | 86.00% ±3.76 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,805 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,012 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,319 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,001 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $921 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $915 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $706 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $609 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $493 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $405 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,250 | $400 | 0.6% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $303 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $289 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $264 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $253 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $239 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $238 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 769 | $237 | 0.6% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $219 | 0.8% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 156 | $218 | 2.7% | 3 | 24.4 | 0.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $214 | 2.0% | 10 | 18.6 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $190 | 1.9% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $187 | 0.7% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $164 | 2.6% | 22 | 31.6 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 278 | $156 | 1.1% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $154 | 1.9% | 18 | 24.7 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $153 | 2.4% | 19 | 30.8 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $150 | 1.5% | 14 | 20.2 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $146 | 1.3% | 14 | 17.1 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $145 | 1.6% | 12 | 21.7 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $144 | 1.3% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $139 | 1.5% | 17 | 22.1 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $135 | 3.7% | 39 | 54.8 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $133 | 1.4% | 14 | 20.5 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 213 | $126 | 1.1% | 11 | 17.9 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $119 | 2.2% | 20 | 36.9 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $114 | 4.6% | 49 | 81.0 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $110 | 1.9% | 25 | 35.4 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $94.65 | 2.2% | 34 | 47.2 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $83.03 | 1.5% | 13 | 36.1 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $82.85 | 1.6% | 31 | 38.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $75.12 | 1.5% | 28 | 39.2 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 370 | $73.13 | 0.4% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $70.80 | 2.4% | 39 | 68.1 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $70.60 | 1.6% | 36 | 44.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $70.44 | 6.9% | 218 | 196.0 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $66.47 | 1.4% | 34 | 42.6 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $64.85 | 1.7% | 27 | 52.5 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $64.31 | 1.7% | 26 | 53.3 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $58.32 | 2.6% | 52 | 87.9 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $54.81 | 2.6% | 65 | 94.0 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $54.24 | 3.5% | 93 | 130.5 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $54.15 | 2.8% | 75 | 101.6 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $53.32 | 2.6% | 69 | 97.8 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $38.98 | 2.2% | 68 | 114.5 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $36.63 | 2.3% | 115 | 125.2 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $34.33 | 2.0% | 75 | 113.4 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $23.31 | 0.8% | 40 | 67.7 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $16.85 | 2.6% | 209 | 307.4 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $15.31 | 0.9% | 72 | 122.1 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $15.28 | 0.9% | 74 | 122.5 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $14.83 | 0.9% | 77 | 127.8 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.55 | 0.8% | 64 | 116.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 13.2% | $13.39 | 3.4% | 507 | 502.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $12.59 | 0.8% | 88 | 129.4 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $12.38 | 0.8% | 80 | 132.4 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $12.18 | 0.8% | 108 | 139.3 | 0.78× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/serpent`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $59.95 $915 15.27x 2026-11-10 19:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent) [silvercrow](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/silvercrow) $59.95 $850 14.17x 2026-11-08 20:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $59.95 $736 12.28x 2026-11-08 21:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=serpent)

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $59.95 $13.39 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $59.95 $159 2.65x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $59.95 $137 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $59.95 $14.06 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $59.95 $159 2.65x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $59.95 $12.64 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [ZevkLast\`iN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZevkLast%60iN) $59.95 $17.69 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge) [phase](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/phase) $59.95 $45.69 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [K Real](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/K%20Real) $59.95 $13.39 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [phase](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/phase) $59.95 $64.19 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $59.95 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $59.95 | 87.26% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $59.95 | 87.62% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $59.95 | 87.40% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $59.95 | 87.27% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $59.95 | 87.56% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $59.95 | 87.81% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $59.95 | 87.27% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $59.95 | 87.57% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $59.95 | 87.41% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $59.95 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $59.95 | 87.77% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $59.95 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $59.95 | 87.41% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $59.95 | 87.42% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $59.95 | 87.65% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.95 | 87.09% | 66 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 50.2% gold 0.1% classified 22.4% pink 19.3% uncommon 8.1% best hit $915 (15.27x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt