---
title: "SHADOW case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SHADOW ($2.83) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 84.60% over 4,516 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SHADOW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SHADOW

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=all)

Price · $2.83

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.48 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.60% · 4,516 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.80% ±11.69 532 openings

7 days · 83.17% ±4.63 3,899 openings

30 days · 84.60% ±4.45 4,516 openings

since tracking started · 84.60% ±4.45 4,516 openings

67.5% 79.8% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=24h) | 532 | 79.80% ±11.7 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=7d) | 3,899 | 83.17% ±4.63 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow) | 4,516 | 84.60% ±4.45 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/shadow?window=all) | 4,516 | 84.60% ±4.45 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,519 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $94.65 | 0.8% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $64.31 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $23.44 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.58 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $15.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $10.24 | 9.8% | 105 | 107.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $9.69 | 6.0% | 43 | 69.6 | 0.62× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $6.64 | 3.7% | 34 | 62.8 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $6.59 | 2.9% | 40 | 49.7 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $6.54 | 3.0% | 32 | 50.6 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $6.22 | 3.1% | 35 | 56.0 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $5.87 | 3.7% | 56 | 70.5 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.67 | 5.3% | 72 | 127.0 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 14.2% | $4.08 | 23.3% | 335 | 639.9 | 0.52× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.36 | 7.5% | 322 | 355.6 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.99 | 6.6% | 380 | 369.7 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $1.28 | 5.0% | 441 | 441.1 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.06 | 2.2% | 136 | 227.3 | 0.60× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.97 | 2.2% | 170 | 257.6 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.85 | 3.9% | 564 | 519.7 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 11.7% | $0.82 | 3.9% | 580 | 526.9 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 12.7% | $0.63 | 3.2% | 655 | 575.3 | 1.14× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/shadow`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=shadow)

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.83 $1.01 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) Hidden $2.83 $0.65 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) Hidden $2.83 $6.48 2.29x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $2.83 $4.37 1.54x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.83 $0.94 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [ACHICHAU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ACHICHAU) $2.83 $0.85 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [kekitoelcrackpvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kekitoelcrackpvp) $2.83 $0.85 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) [ACHICHAU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ACHICHAU) $2.83 $1.28 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) [ACHICHAU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ACHICHAU) $2.83 $1.99 0.70x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $2.83 $10.24 3.62x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.83 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.83 | 87.24% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.83 | 88.22% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.83 | 87.48% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.83 | 87.65% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.83 | 87.55% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.83 | 87.91% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.83 | 87.99% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.83 | 87.53% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.83 | 87.69% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.83 | 88.15% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.83 | 87.33% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.83 | 87.39% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.83 | 87.33% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.83 | 87.73% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.83 | 87.62% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.83 | 87.30% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.0% classified 17.9% Mythical 7.9% violet 34.5% Legendary 5.8% pink 1.1% #d32ee6 1.1% restricted 8.2% gray 5.0% grey 5.7% blue 12.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt