---
title: "SHARP case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SHARP ($7.89) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 85.50% over 10.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SHARP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SHARP

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=all)

Price · $7.89

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.90 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.50% · 10.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 31 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 103.17% ±22.23 850 openings

7 days · 85.67% ±6.54 9,601 openings

30 days · 85.50% ±6.20 10.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.50% ±6.20 10.8K openings

78.5% 102.3% 126.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=24h) | 850 | 103.17% ±22.2 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=7d) | 9,601 | 85.67% ±6.54 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2) | 10.8K | 85.50% ±6.20 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sharp-2?window=all) | 10.8K | 85.50% ±6.20 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $626 | 4.5% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 357 | $237 | 9.6% | 30 | 30.1 | 1.00× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $118 | 9.4% | 65 | 59.2 | 1.10× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $114 | 9.4% | 59 | 61.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $75.58 | 9.4% | 77 | 92.5 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $73.13 | 9.4% | 101 | 95.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $64.58 | 9.4% | 96 | 108.7 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $54.15 | 9.4% | 144 | 129.1 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $42.85 | 9.4% | 161 | 163.6 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $10.77 | 9.4% | 649 | 650.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 27.9% | $2.48 | 10.0% | 3,205 | 3002.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 59.1% | $0.06 | 0.5% | 6,170 | 6363.0 | 0.97× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sharp-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.89 $639 80.94x 2026-11-05 11:20 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.89 $630 79.87x 2026-11-08 15:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.89 $626 79.36x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.89 $626 79.36x 2026-11-10 09:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sharp-2)

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $2.48 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $10.77 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $64.58 8.19x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $2.48 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $0.06 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.89 $2.55 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $7.89 $2.55 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $7.89 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $7.89 | 87.79% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.89 | 87.20% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.89 | 87.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.89 | 87.25% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.89 | 86.84% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.89 | 87.74% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.89 | 87.61% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.89 | 87.49% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.89 | 87.34% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.89 | 87.55% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.89 | 87.26% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.89 | 87.37% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.89 | 87.82% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.89 | 87.42% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.89 | 87.66% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.89 | 87.89% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.9% covert 3.7% restricted 28.8% Ancient 1.5% pink 6.0% Common 59.1% best hit $639 (80.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt