--- title: "SIGNAL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SIGNAL ($2.96) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.17% over 21.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SIGNAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SIGNAL A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=all) Price · $2.96 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.59 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.17% · 21.6K openings, odds method Variance · 178.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 95 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60.58% ±58.12 2,141 openings 7 days · 83.49% ±19.66 19.4K openings 30 days · 82.17% ±18.60 21.6K openings since tracking started · 82.17% ±18.60 21.6K openings 2.0% 60.8% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=24h) | 2,141 | 60.58% ±58.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=7d) | 19.4K | 83.49% ±19.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal) | 21.6K | 82.17% ±18.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/signal?window=all) | 21.6K | 82.17% ±18.6 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,311 | 7.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $612 | 17.7% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,163 | $139 | 4.6% | 17 | 18.6 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 714 | $110 | 5.9% | 31 | 30.3 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 532 | $94.61 | 6.9% | 32 | 40.7 | 0.79× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 549 | $62.36 | 4.4% | 26 | 39.4 | 0.66× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $54.06 | 7.8% | 54 | 80.9 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 178 | $44.14 | 9.6% | 92 | 121.6 | 0.76× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 275 | $43.99 | 6.2% | 52 | 78.8 | 0.66× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 224 | $39.74 | 6.8% | 61 | 96.5 | 0.63× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $9.73 | 17.4% | 674 | 1000.3 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 93.0% | $0.15 | 5.4% | 20,482 | 20113.1 | 1.02× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/signal`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.96 $6,311 2,132x 2026-11-10 11:36 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $621 209.9x 2026-11-04 01:18 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [martisek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/martisek12%20skins.army) $2.96 $621 209.8x 2026-11-09 20:31 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [martisek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/martisek12%20skins.army) $2.96 $621 209.8x 2026-11-09 20:31 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $621 209.7x 2026-11-04 20:42 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $617 208.4x 2026-11-08 23:31 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $617 208.4x 2026-11-08 23:04 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $617 208.4x 2026-11-08 23:01 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.96 $617 208.4x 2026-11-08 22:18 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Fan4Haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fan4Haze) $2.96 $617 208.4x 2026-11-08 22:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=signal) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Deekay](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deekay) $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Deekay](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deekay) $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [꧁ঔৣ☬✞Ibalgin1200✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%EA%A7%81%E0%A6%94%E0%A7%A3%E2%98%AC%E2%9C%9EIbalgin1200%E2%9C%9E) $2.96 $9.95 3.36x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [꧁ঔৣ☬✞Ibalgin1200✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%EA%A7%81%E0%A6%94%E0%A7%A3%E2%98%AC%E2%9C%9EIbalgin1200%E2%9C%9E) $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [꧁ঔৣ☬✞Ibalgin1200✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%EA%A7%81%E0%A6%94%E0%A7%A3%E2%98%AC%E2%9C%9EIbalgin1200%E2%9C%9E) $2.96 $0.15 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $2.96 | 87.50% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.96 | 87.50% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.96 | 87.32% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.96 | 87.07% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.96 | 87.39% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.96 | 87.12% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.96 | 87.39% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.96 | 87.96% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.96 | 87.28% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.96 | 88.09% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.96 | 88.06% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.96 | 87.16% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.96 | 87.84% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.96 | 87.31% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.96 | 87.35% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.96 | 87.57% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.1% red 0.4% restricted 4.6% industrial 93.0% best hit $6,311 (2,132x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt