--- title: "SILK JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SILK JOKER ($2,472.56) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 99.40% over 422 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SILK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SILK JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=all) Price · $2,472.56 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 99.40% · 422 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 333 openings · below min 30 days · 422 openings · below min since tracking started · 422 openings · below min 16.5% 65.5% 114.5% **Small sample.** 422 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=24h) | 30 | 63.20% ±46.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=7d) | 333 | 92.60% ±15.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker) | 422 | 99.40% ±14.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk-joker?window=all) | 422 | 99.40% ±14.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,464 $12.1K 4.92x 2026-11-04 18:23 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,464 $12.1K 4.92x 2026-11-04 18:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,422 $12K 4.97x 2026-11-10 10:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,422 $12K 4.97x 2026-11-10 10:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,422 $12K 4.97x 2026-11-10 10:00 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,451 $12K 4.91x 2026-11-06 03:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,451 $12K 4.91x 2026-11-06 03:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,451 $12K 4.91x 2026-11-06 03:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,451 $12K 4.91x 2026-11-06 03:31 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,451 $12K 4.91x 2026-11-06 03:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=silk-joker) [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $265 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $9,282 3.83x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $20.12 0.01x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $22.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 04:38 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $20.12 0.01x 2026-11-11 04:38 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $20.12 0.01x 2026-11-11 04:38 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $236 0.10x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $20.12 0.01x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $86.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,424 $220 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $12.1K (4.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.40 on average: an expected loss of $0.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt