---
title: "SILK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SILK ($295.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 34 items with odds, observed 93.63% over 2,718 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SILK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SILK

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=all)

Price · $295.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $258.12 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.63% · 2,718 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.78% ±13.72 933 openings

7 days · 94.84% ±8.56 2,415 openings

30 days · 93.63% ±8.06 2,718 openings

since tracking started · 93.63% ±8.06 2,718 openings

74.5% 89.3% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=24h) | 933 | 88.78% ±13.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=7d) | 2,415 | 94.84% ±8.56 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk) | 2,718 | 93.63% ±8.06 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/silk?window=all) | 2,718 | 93.63% ±8.06 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,718 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $12K | 3.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,362 | 3.6% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,286 | 3.6% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.58× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 345 | $3,100 | 3.5% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,232 | 3.5% | 11 | 10.9 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $1,685 | 3.5% | 12 | 14.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 164 | $1,450 | 3.4% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.09× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,425 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $1,380 | 1.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $1,300 | 1.2% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 385 | $1,224 | 1.2% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.57× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $794 | 5.0% | 37 | 44.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $688 | 17.2% | 187 | 175.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 11 | $499 | 17.2% | 228 | 242.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $428 | 9.4% | 119 | 153.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $258 | 2.9% | 84 | 79.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $237 | 3.4% | 111 | 101.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $222 | 3.3% | 101 | 105.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $189 | 3.1% | 103 | 116.1 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $154 | 1.4% | 62 | 63.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $144 | 1.5% | 49 | 70.7 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $89.33 | 1.1% | 54 | 87.2 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $82.85 | 0.4% | 22 | 34.8 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $82.41 | 1.2% | 70 | 99.5 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $58.32 | 0.5% | 55 | 61.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $54.51 | 0.5% | 54 | 68.0 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $54.15 | 0.5% | 56 | 68.8 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $35.79 | 0.2% | 41 | 46.2 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $34.33 | 0.2% | 32 | 46.5 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $20.29 | 0.3% | 93 | 114.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $18.51 | 0.3% | 102 | 132.6 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $16.90 | 0.4% | 117 | 153.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $16.85 | 0.3% | 106 | 145.1 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 15.8% | $8.79 | 0.5% | 337 | 428.1 | 0.79× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/silk`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $295 $12K 40.83x 2026-11-05 14:56 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $295 $12K 40.83x 2026-11-05 14:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Look At Me](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Look%20At%20Me) $295 $9,653 32.72x 2026-11-05 20:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Look At Me](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Look%20At%20Me) $295 $9,653 32.72x 2026-11-05 20:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $295 $9,653 32.72x 2026-11-08 20:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $295 $9,515 32.25x 2026-11-05 14:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $295 $9,515 32.25x 2026-11-05 14:50 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $295 $9,455 32.05x 2026-11-06 01:39 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $295 $9,455 32.05x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $295 $9,362 31.74x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=silk)

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $295 $149 0.50x 2026-11-11 03:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $295 $154 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) Hidden $295 $16.90 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $295 $688 2.33x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $295 $20.29 0.07x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $295 $688 2.33x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $295 $54.15 0.18x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [xno777name](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xno777name) $295 $12.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 03:30 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [xno777name](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xno777name) $295 $688 2.33x 2026-11-11 03:30 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $295 $8.79 0.03x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $295 | 87.53% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $295 | 87.32% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $295 | 87.86% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $295 | 87.58% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $295 | 87.74% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $295 | 87.57% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $295 | 88.06% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $295 | 87.62% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $295 | 87.82% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $295 | 88.22% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $295 | 88.09% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $295 | 88.06% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $295 | 87.87% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $295 | 88.14% | 34 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $295 | 88.20% | 34 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $295 | 87.32% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% covert 38.7% restricted 0.5% extraordinary 7.4% epic 10.3% gold 3.7% classified 16.4% pink 17.5% uncommon 5.3% best hit $12K (40.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt