--- title: "SINDEL JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SINDEL JOKER ($189.97) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.75% over 141 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SINDEL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SINDEL JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=all) Price · $189.97 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.75% · 141 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 72 openings · below min 7 days · 136 openings · below min 30 days · 141 openings · below min since tracking started · 141 openings · below min 54.0% 95.0% 136.0% **Small sample.** 141 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=24h) | 72 | 97.31% ±38.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=7d) | 136 | 79.41% ±24.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker) | 141 | 81.75% ±24.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel-joker?window=all) | 141 | 81.75% ±24.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $189 $1,124 5.95x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $189 $1,124 5.95x 2026-11-10 01:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $189 $1,116 5.91x 2026-11-08 02:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $187 $1,109 5.92x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $187 $1,109 5.92x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $187 $1,109 5.92x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $189 $794 4.20x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $189 $794 4.20x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $189 $794 4.20x 2026-11-10 01:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $187 $787 4.20x 2026-11-11 03:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sindel-joker) [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $189 $4.59 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $189 $4.59 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $189 $2.22 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Neo-Noir weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $189 $4.59 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $189 $2.22 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $189 $794 4.20x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) Hidden $187 $39.73 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $187 $3.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) Hidden $187 $29.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $187 $787 4.20x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,124 (5.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.75 on average: an expected loss of $18.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt