---
title: "SINDEL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SINDEL ($5.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 92.02% over 5,679 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SINDEL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SINDEL

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.38 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.02% · 5,679 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 60.84% ±48.16 250 openings

7 days · 87.42% ±10.52 5,150 openings

30 days · 92.02% ±10.02 5,679 openings

since tracking started · 92.02% ±10.02 5,679 openings

12.0% 60.7% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=24h) | 250 | 60.84% ±48.2 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=7d) | 5,150 | 87.42% ±10.5 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel) | 5,679 | 92.02% ±10.0 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sindel?window=all) | 5,679 | 92.02% ±10.0 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,688 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,109 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $787 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,326 | $499 | 4.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,316 | $283 | 4.9% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 676 | $145 | 4.9% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $144 | 2.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $133 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $108 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 901 | $87.50 | 2.2% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $73.72 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $73.13 | 2.7% | 3 | 9.0 | 0.33× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $67.48 | 1.5% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $64.58 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $64.31 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 926 | $59.97 | 1.5% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 787 | $59.71 | 1.7% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 258 | $54.95 | 4.9% | 21 | 22.0 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $48.05 | 2.4% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 429 | $46.43 | 2.5% | 7 | 13.3 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $43.49 | 4.9% | 25 | 27.8 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 602 | $40.50 | 1.5% | 4 | 9.4 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 513 | $37.34 | 1.7% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 505 | $37.00 | 1.7% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $30.97 | 4.8% | 35 | 38.9 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 314 | $20.29 | 1.5% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 262 | $18.51 | 1.6% | 17 | 21.7 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 218 | $16.90 | 1.8% | 17 | 26.1 | 0.65× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $9.74 | 1.6% | 36 | 41.0 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $9.69 | 1.6% | 28 | 41.4 | 0.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 134 | $9.58 | 1.6% | 27 | 42.4 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $6.69 | 1.9% | 48 | 69.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $5.27 | 1.5% | 52 | 72.1 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $5.10 | 1.5% | 62 | 73.1 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $5.04 | 1.6% | 64 | 78.9 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.68 | 3.2% | 120 | 170.2 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $4.59 | 3.1% | 100 | 168.9 | 0.59× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $4.55 | 3.1% | 98 | 171.3 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.15 | 5.4% | 192 | 322.1 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.23 | 2.2% | 128 | 172.1 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 13.3% | $1.28 | 3.9% | 455 | 756.7 | 0.60× |
| [Sticker \| Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) | 56.6% | $0.20 | 2.6% | 3,284 | 3220.3 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sindel`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Amalgama](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amalgama) $5.00 $799 159.9x 2026-11-07 18:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Oscar TOP TIER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Oscar%20TOP%20TIER) $5.00 $748 149.7x 2026-11-06 14:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Oscar TOP TIER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Oscar%20TOP%20TIER) $5.00 $748 149.7x 2026-11-06 14:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5.00 $518 103.5x 2026-11-03 05:04 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5.00 $495 98.91x 2026-11-08 02:52 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $5.00 $277 55.40x 2026-11-04 16:06 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $5.00 $277 55.30x 2026-11-04 13:20 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $5.00 $275 55.05x 2026-11-05 14:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sindel)

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $5.00 $1.64 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [P͇A͇V͇A͇.͇U͇A͇](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/P%CD%87A%CD%87V%CD%87A%CD%87.%CD%87U%CD%87A%CD%87) $5.00 $79.04 15.81x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Sticker | Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) [Enfoire](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Enfoire) $5.00 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [Demon.!.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Demon.!.) $5.00 $4.90 0.98x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Demon.!.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Demon.!.) $5.00 $1.64 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Breen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Breen) $5.00 $1.64 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [Breen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Breen) $5.00 $1.64 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

[Sticker | Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) [Breen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Breen) $5.00 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

[Sticker | Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) [Breen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Breen) $5.00 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

[Sticker | Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) [Breen](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Breen) $5.00 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.00 | 87.14% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 87.81% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.00 | 87.87% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.40% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.10% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.00 | 87.92% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.76% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.51% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.89% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.00 | 87.88% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.00 | 87.30% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.34% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 86.87% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.3% rare 0.0% gold 0.1% red 1.5% classified 9.0% pink 8.5% Legendary 4.3% Classified 1.4% Mythical 16.3% blue 56.6% best hit $799 (159.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt