---
title: "SKETCH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SKETCH ($1.85) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 69 items with odds, observed 82.79% over 11.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SKETCH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SKETCH

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=all)

Price · $1.85

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.62 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.79% · 11.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 25.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.64% ±28.34 1,232 openings

7 days · 82.75% ±10.28 9,413 openings

30 days · 82.79% ±9.17 11.8K openings

since tracking started · 82.79% ±9.17 11.8K openings

53.5% 82.5% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=24h) | 1,232 | 82.64% ±28.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=7d) | 9,413 | 82.75% ±10.3 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch) | 11.8K | 82.79% ±9.17 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sketch?window=all) | 11.8K | 82.79% ±9.17 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,718 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $572 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $139 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.24 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $42.81 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $35.79 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $27.90 | 0.5% | 7 | 3.5 | 1.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.20 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $11.39 | 0.6% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $8.68 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $8.40 | 0.2% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $8.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $7.85 | 0.2% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $7.69 | 0.2% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $7.02 | 0.2% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 294 | $6.84 | 1.4% | 12 | 40.2 | 0.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 323 | $6.43 | 1.2% | 26 | 36.7 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $5.63 | 0.7% | 13 | 23.6 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $5.50 | 0.9% | 24 | 30.7 | 0.78× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.33 | 3.6% | 92 | 128.9 | 0.71× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $5.18 | 0.4% | 12 | 15.4 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $5.04 | 2.2% | 68 | 82.8 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $4.95 | 3.6% | 122 | 138.3 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $4.88 | 0.9% | 19 | 36.7 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $4.33 | 2.2% | 52 | 95.8 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $4.30 | 2.2% | 54 | 96.9 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $4.20 | 0.8% | 34 | 34.3 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $4.11 | 1.8% | 56 | 85.1 | 0.66× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $4.00 | 1.9% | 45 | 89.9 | 0.50× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $3.94 | 1.9% | 64 | 93.4 | 0.69× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $3.54 | 2.5% | 57 | 136.0 | 0.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $3.53 | 0.4% | 8 | 20.1 | 0.40× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $3.34 | 2.7% | 84 | 152.5 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $3.27 | 2.5% | 109 | 146.6 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $3.22 | 3.2% | 101 | 189.2 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $2.88 | 0.7% | 23 | 46.1 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.69 | 8.0% | 275 | 571.1 | 0.48× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $2.17 | 4.1% | 161 | 364.1 | 0.44× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $2.05 | 4.4% | 172 | 407.9 | 0.42× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $1.99 | 4.5% | 137 | 432.7 | 0.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1.84 | 2.9% | 336 | 300.3 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $1.60 | 0.5% | 33 | 57.9 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 35 | 53.2 | 0.66× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.40 | 3.8% | 500 | 515.5 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $1.34 | 0.5% | 39 | 75.7 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $1.25 | 1.3% | 104 | 192.7 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $1.21 | 0.8% | 73 | 128.9 | 0.57× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.00 | 3.1% | 622 | 588.8 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.91 | 0.9% | 108 | 192.7 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.83 | 1.5% | 203 | 341.7 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $0.82 | 1.0% | 112 | 223.5 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.77 | 2.6% | 614 | 653.8 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.74 | 0.7% | 83 | 171.4 | 0.48× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $0.71 | 0.7% | 107 | 183.3 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $0.69 | 0.7% | 96 | 189.2 | 0.51× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.66 | 0.6% | 91 | 178.5 | 0.51× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 108 | 203.4 | 0.53× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 131 | 203.4 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $0.65 | 0.7% | 124 | 205.7 | 0.60× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.63 | 2.3% | 775 | 709.4 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.59 | 2.2% | 769 | 728.3 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.56 | 0.7% | 133 | 224.6 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $0.51 | 0.7% | 169 | 256.6 | 0.66× |
| [Galil AR \| NV (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.50 | 2.0% | 821 | 778.0 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.33 | 1.6% | 1,020 | 913.9 | 1.12× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sketch`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sketch)

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $1.85 $2.31 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $1.85 $0.33 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $1.85 $1.92 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.85 $2.31 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $1.40 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $1.00 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Embargo weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $2.10 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Embargo weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $2.10 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $0.63 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[P250 | Visions weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $1.85 $4.14 2.24x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.85 | 87.50% | 69 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.85 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.85 | 87.15% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.85 | 87.88% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.85 | 87.70% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.85 | 87.61% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.85 | 87.52% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.85 | 87.13% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.85 | 87.38% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.85 | 88.05% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.85 | 87.39% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.85 | 87.71% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.85 | 86.58% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.85 | 87.25% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.85 | 87.58% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.85 | 87.18% | 69 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.85 | 88.05% | 69 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% covert 0.0% restricted 19.3% red 0.1% #d32ce6 0.3% Mythical 1.7% Legendary 1.1% industrial 0.1% violet 15.2% pink 2.5% Classified 0.8% rare 0.2% mil spec 2.3% #8847ff 15.7% blue 29.3% uncommon 4.9% light blue 6.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt