--- title: "SMART JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SMART JOKER ($205.30) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.71% over 566 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T22:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SMART JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SMART JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=all) Price · $205.30 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.71% · 566 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 510 openings · below min 30 days · 566 openings · below min since tracking started · 566 openings · below min 62.5% 122.3% 182.0% **Small sample.** 566 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=24h) | 30 | 122.31% ±59.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=7d) | 510 | 95.93% ±13.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker) | 566 | 94.71% ±12.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2-joker?window=all) | 566 | 94.71% ±12.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 02:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $201 $1,150 5.73x 2026-11-07 00:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=smart-2-joker) [★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $198 $140 0.71x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $198 $7.76 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $198 $53.51 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $198 $1,103 5.57x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $198 $53.51 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [MP5-SD | Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) Hidden $198 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $198 $150 0.76x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $198 $761 3.85x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $198 $64.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $198 $64.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,150 (5.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.71 on average: an expected loss of $5.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt