--- title: "SMART case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SMART ($4.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 90.27% over 9,814 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SMART](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SMART A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.50 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.27% · 9,814 openings, odds method Variance · 39.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 74 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68.86% ±39.27 998 openings 7 days · 88.73% ±13.14 8,427 openings 30 days · 90.27% ±12.20 9,814 openings since tracking started · 90.27% ±12.20 9,814 openings 29.0% 69.0% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=24h) | 998 | 68.86% ±39.3 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=7d) | 8,427 | 88.73% ±13.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2) | 9,814 | 90.27% ±12.2 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/smart-2?window=all) | 9,814 | 90.27% ±12.2 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,819 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $1,119 | 4.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $787 | 4.5% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.55× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $609 | 4.3% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 3,333 | $507 | 4.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $317 | 4.3% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,163 | $172 | 4.2% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 990 | $147 | 4.3% | 16 | 9.9 | 1.61× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 730 | $109 | 4.3% | 16 | 13.5 | 1.19× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $92.38 | 4.2% | 9 | 15.7 | 0.57× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 439 | $64.85 | 4.2% | 16 | 22.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 429 | $63.61 | 4.2% | 23 | 22.9 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 366 | $54.24 | 4.2% | 29 | 26.8 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $33.60 | 4.2% | 52 | 43.0 | 1.21× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $23.67 | 4.2% | 65 | 61.1 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $23.44 | 4.2% | 68 | 61.7 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $20.29 | 4.2% | 86 | 71.3 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $14.98 | 4.2% | 85 | 96.4 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $8.79 | 4.2% | 155 | 164.4 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $7.50 | 4.2% | 214 | 192.6 | 1.11× | | [XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) | 10.6% | $2.37 | 7.2% | 999 | 1043.7 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 12.2% | $1.54 | 5.4% | 1,094 | 1201.5 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 12.9% | $1.28 | 4.7% | 1,129 | 1270.1 | 0.89× | | [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 27.0% | $0.11 | 0.8% | 2,739 | 2651.8 | 1.03× | | [MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) | 28.8% | $0.09 | 0.7% | 3,003 | 2828.5 | 1.06× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/smart-2`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $1,149 287.3x 2026-11-08 21:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [hardzioo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hardzioo) $4.00 $825 206.1x 2026-11-03 11:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [hardzioo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hardzioo) $4.00 $825 206.1x 2026-11-03 11:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $814 203.4x 2026-11-04 21:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $777 194.3x 2026-11-07 00:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $761 190.1x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [LeKorrigan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeKorrigan) $4.00 $621 155.2x 2026-11-04 19:52 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [LeKorrigan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeKorrigan) $4.00 $621 155.2x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $619 154.9x 2026-11-07 00:13 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $617 154.2x 2026-11-08 21:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=smart-2) [MP5-SD | Focus (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $1.28 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $4.00 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) [jet](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/jet) $4.00 $2.37 0.59x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 $2.39 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.00 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) [jet](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/jet) $4.00 $2.39 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $4.00 $1.54 0.39x 2026-11-11 09:05 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $4.00 $1.49 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 24 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.63% | 24 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.00 | 87.57% | 24 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.00 | 88.01% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.00 | 88.04% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.87% | 24 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.00 | 87.28% | 24 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.00 | 87.29% | 24 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.00 | 88.13% | 24 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 24 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.00 | 87.14% | 24 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.98% | 24 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.00 | 87.66% | 24 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.90% | 24 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.00 | 87.10% | 24 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.00 | 88.09% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.00 | 86.81% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 3 12.2% covert 1.0% red 0.1% gold 0.1% rare 0.2% classified 3.4% pink 3.6% #8847ff 10.6% Mythical 12.9% blue 55.8% best hit $1,149 (287.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt