---
title: "SNOWFALL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SNOWFALL ($12.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.66% over 28.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SNOWFALL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SNOWFALL

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=all)

Price · $12.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.94 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.66% · 28.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.31% ±2.51 4,756 openings

7 days · 87.92% ±1.16 22.5K openings

30 days · 87.66% ±1.04 28.3K openings

since tracking started · 87.66% ±1.04 28.3K openings

86.0% 89.3% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=24h) | 4,756 | 89.31% ±2.51 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=7d) | 22.5K | 87.92% ±1.16 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall) | 28.3K | 87.66% ±1.04 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/snowfall?window=all) | 28.3K | 87.66% ±1.04 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,300 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $861 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14,286 | $514 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.51× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $469 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $207 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $153 | 0.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $145 | 0.2% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $64.31 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.97 | 0.1% | 7 | 2.8 | 2.47× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $58.95 | 0.2% | 2 | 8.5 | 0.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.97 | 0.0% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $50.22 | 0.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 417 | $48.53 | 1.1% | 47 | 68.1 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 244 | $38.98 | 1.5% | 78 | 116.3 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $36.63 | 1.5% | 98 | 130.5 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $34.71 | 3.0% | 270 | 269.5 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $22.76 | 11.3% | 1,593 | 1545.9 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $18.09 | 11.3% | 1,786 | 1945.9 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $13.38 | 11.3% | 2,451 | 2629.5 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.10 | 6.4% | 1,701 | 1648.1 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.96 | 6.4% | 1,662 | 1670.8 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.13 | 5.8% | 1,818 | 1787.1 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $9.72 | 5.7% | 1,891 | 1815.4 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) | 1 in 15 | $8.44 | 5.2% | 1,853 | 1920.4 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.44 | 4.8% | 2,029 | 2019.7 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.07 | 4.7% | 2,114 | 2062.2 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.98 | 4.7% | 2,000 | 2073.6 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $6.76 | 4.6% | 2,120 | 2099.1 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $6.70 | 4.6% | 2,257 | 2107.6 | 1.07× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.82 | 3.8% | 2,445 | 2416.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/snowfall`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [Ez a rohadt kábító](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ez%20a%20rohadt%20k%C3%A1b%C3%ADt%C3%B3) $12.50 $1,292 103.4x 2026-11-09 04:30 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $12.50 $519 41.54x 2026-11-08 22:32 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [DrapleX | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DrapleX%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $12.50 $514 41.15x 2026-11-11 08:44 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [DrapleX | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DrapleX%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $12.50 $514 41.15x 2026-11-11 08:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=snowfall)

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $12.50 $6.76 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Dombik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Dombik) $12.50 $7.07 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) [Chnovice](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chnovice) $12.50 $6.70 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $12.50 $18.09 1.45x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $12.50 $469 37.50x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.50 $13.38 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $12.50 $18.09 1.45x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.50 $6.76 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 $6.98 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $12.50 $469 37.50x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $12.50 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $12.50 | 87.90% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $12.50 | 87.93% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.50 | 87.90% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $12.50 | 87.99% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $12.50 | 87.85% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $12.50 | 87.74% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $12.50 | 87.79% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $12.50 | 87.82% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $12.50 | 87.85% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $12.50 | 87.71% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $12.50 | 87.93% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $12.50 | 87.86% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $12.50 | 88.01% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $12.50 | 87.79% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $12.50 | 87.88% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.50 | 87.82% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% gold 0.0% classified 7.4% restricted 0.9% violet 34.2% blue 32.9% pink 14.7% gray 8.5% best hit $1,292 (103.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt