--- title: "SPARK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SPARK ($1.90) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.05% from 3 items with odds, observed 81.28% over 9,819 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SPARK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SPARK A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=all) Price · $1.90 Advertised RTP · 87.05% · EV $1.65 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.28% · 9,819 openings, odds method Variance · 31.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67.57% ±34.45 1,016 openings 7 days · 80.75% ±11.82 8,598 openings 30 days · 81.28% ±11.05 9,819 openings since tracking started · 81.28% ±11.05 9,819 openings 32.5% 67.5% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=24h) | 1,016 | 67.57% ±34.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=7d) | 8,598 | 80.75% ±11.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark) | 9,819 | 81.28% ±11.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/spark?window=all) | 9,819 | 81.28% ±11.0 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,840 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,351 | $163 | 7.3% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $63.61 | 90.9% | 220 | 232.6 | 0.95× | | [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) | 97.6% | $0.03 | 1.8% | 9,614 | 9600.1 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/spark`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $159 83.48x 2026-11-03 19:03 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $156 82.09x 2026-11-07 02:15 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $156 82.09x 2026-11-07 02:07 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $156 82.02x 2026-11-08 22:13 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $156 81.94x 2026-11-08 05:02 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.90 $156 81.94x 2026-11-08 01:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=spark) [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [thales\_lw](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thales_lw) $1.90 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [thales\_lw](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thales_lw) $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $1.90 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [dos](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dos) $1.90 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [Mondongo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mondongo) $1.90 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) [Mondongo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mondongo) $1.90 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.90 | 87.05% | 3 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.90 | 87.04% | 3 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.90 | 87.10% | 3 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.90 | 87.01% | 3 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.90 | 87.02% | 3 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.90 | 86.66% | 3 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.90 | 87.00% | 3 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.90 | 87.01% | 3 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.90 | 87.30% | 3 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.90 | 87.05% | 3 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.90 | 87.03% | 3 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.90 | 87.07% | 3 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.90 | 87.50% | 3 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.90 | 87.09% | 3 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.90 | 87.08% | 3 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.90 | 87.06% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.1% covert 2.4% #777777 97.6% best hit $159 (83.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.05 on average: an expected loss of $12.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt