---
title: "SPORT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SPORT ($1,700.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 89.09% over 2,272 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SPORT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SPORT

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=all)

Price · $1,700.00

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $1,538.52 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.09% · 2,272 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.16% ±3.66 981 openings

7 days · 89.07% ±2.49 1,951 openings

30 days · 89.09% ±2.28 2,272 openings

since tracking started · 89.09% ±2.28 2,272 openings

85.0% 89.3% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=24h) | 981 | 89.16% ±3.66 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=7d) | 1,951 | 89.07% ±2.49 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport) | 2,272 | 89.09% ±2.28 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sport?window=all) | 2,272 | 89.09% ±2.28 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,272 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $9,664 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $9,437 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $8,833 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $7,472 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 137 | $5,881 | 2.8% | 11 | 16.6 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $5,557 | 2.8% | 23 | 17.7 | 1.30× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4,309 | 2.8% | 27 | 22.7 | 1.19× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $4,083 | 5.2% | 33 | 44.5 | 0.74× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 45 | $3,645 | 5.2% | 31 | 50.0 | 0.62× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 34 | $2,737 | 5.2% | 41 | 66.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14 | $2,262 | 10.5% | 234 | 162.7 | 1.44× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 11 | $1,707 | 10.5% | 135 | 215.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 19 | $1,627 | 5.6% | 116 | 121.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1,627 | 5.6% | 115 | 119.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 18 | $1,587 | 5.6% | 139 | 122.9 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,572 | 5.6% | 126 | 123.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 18 | $1,505 | 5.5% | 122 | 126.8 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $933 | 4.5% | 188 | 169.0 | 1.11× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $900 | 2.2% | 68 | 84.3 | 0.81× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $873 | 4.4% | 188 | 175.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $870 | 4.4% | 185 | 176.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 13 | $861 | 4.4% | 217 | 177.4 | 1.22× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $859 | 2.2% | 74 | 90.9 | 0.81× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $814 | 4.3% | 166 | 184.9 | 0.90× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sport`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,700 $8,833 5.20x 2026-11-10 15:37 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,700 $8,833 5.20x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 20:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 15:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 14:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 14:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 14:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 14:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,700 $5,931 3.49x 2026-11-05 11:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,700 $5,881 3.46x 2026-11-10 20:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sport)

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $1,700 $2,262 1.33x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $1,700 $933 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $1,700 $933 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,700 $870 0.51x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,700 $1,707 1.00x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,700 $861 0.51x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,700 $2,737 1.61x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,700 $870 0.51x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $1,700 $2,262 1.33x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) [@oldschoolfps](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%40oldschoolfps) $1,700 $933 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1,700 | 90.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1,700 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1,700 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1,700 | 90.76% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1,700 | 90.96% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1,700 | 90.80% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1,700 | 90.98% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1,700 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1,700 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1,700 | 90.72% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1,700 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1,700 | 90.73% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1,700 | 90.82% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1,700 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1,700 | 90.78% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1,700 | 90.99% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,700 | 90.73% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 69.4% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 3.0% Covert 5.3% legendary 13.2% classified 5.4% gold 3.7% best hit $8,833 (5.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt