---
title: "STORM case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "STORM ($16.42) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 98.20% over 1,317 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [STORM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · STORM

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=all)

Price · $16.42

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $14.37 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.20% · 1,317 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88 openings · below min

7 days · 103.56% ±9.60 1,071 openings

30 days · 98.20% ±8.68 1,317 openings

since tracking started · 98.20% ±8.68 1,317 openings

87.0% 171.3% 255.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.52% – 106.87%, 1,317 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=24h) | 88 | 222.12% ±33.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=7d) | 1,071 | 103.56% ±9.60 | +3.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm) | 1,317 | 98.20% ±8.68 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/storm?window=all) | 1,317 | 98.20% ±8.68 | +2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,317 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,445 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $619 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $556 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $423 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $393 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $258 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $244 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $205 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $160 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) weapon · red · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 2,632 | $101 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,220 | $99.16 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-2) | 1 in 2,083 | $89.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $67.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 243 | $60.90 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $58.10 | 9.8% | 24 | 32.1 | 0.75× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $55.26 | 5.4% | 16 | 18.6 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $33.60 | 3.9% | 15 | 22.0 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $30.80 | 12.2% | 73 | 75.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $30.29 | 4.9% | 21 | 30.7 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $23.33 | 2.4% | 11 | 19.5 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $22.79 | 7.6% | 54 | 63.2 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $21.40 | 3.8% | 31 | 33.9 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $20.36 | 4.6% | 41 | 42.3 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $17.34 | 3.2% | 31 | 34.6 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 12.6% | $13.67 | 12.0% | 79 | 166.1 | 0.48× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $13.28 | 7.1% | 64 | 100.6 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $13.09 | 1.0% | 55 | 14.1 | 3.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $12.97 | 0.9% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.64× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $12.35 | 1.1% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $12.31 | 1.9% | 42 | 28.7 | 1.46× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $10.91 | 0.6% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $10.77 | 1.2% | 18 | 21.3 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $10.65 | 1.0% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $10.57 | 0.6% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 463 | $8.96 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 232 | $5.18 | 0.2% | 1 | 5.7 | 0.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $5.00 | 0.4% | 6 | 14.4 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $3.54 | 0.2% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153 | $3.27 | 0.1% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $2.22 | 0.3% | 15 | 21.4 | 0.70× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2.17 | 0.3% | 17 | 22.8 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $2.17 | 0.3% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.07 | 0.6% | 33 | 59.2 | 0.56× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $2.05 | 0.3% | 18 | 25.0 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $2.03 | 0.3% | 12 | 24.7 | 0.48× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.99 | 0.3% | 10 | 26.2 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $1.84 | 0.2% | 11 | 21.6 | 0.51× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.66 | 0.4% | 26 | 42.1 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $1.56 | 0.2% | 22 | 27.0 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.54 | 0.2% | 16 | 28.7 | 0.56× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.53 | 0.4% | 31 | 48.0 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.31 | 0.3% | 38 | 37.2 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.22 | 0.3% | 29 | 40.0 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.12 | 0.3% | 40 | 45.9 | 0.87× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/storm`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $16.42 $1,445 88.01x 2026-11-11 05:12 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $16.42 $622 37.86x 2026-11-07 02:30 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $16.42 $619 37.71x 2026-11-11 02:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=storm)

[AK-47 | Crane Flight weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight) [SACI COM 3 perna](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SACI%20COM%203%20perna) $16.42 $11.63 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.42 $1.21 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) [SACI COM 3 perna](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SACI%20COM%203%20perna) $16.42 $10.16 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) [redpill](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/redpill) $16.42 $12.31 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $16.42 $1.26 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $16.42 $1.56 0.10x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) Hidden $16.42 $1.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) Hidden $16.42 $13.67 0.83x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 $22.79 1.39x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) Hidden $16.42 $13.67 0.83x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $16.42 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $16.42 | 87.71% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $16.42 | 87.75% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $16.42 | 87.76% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $16.42 | 87.68% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $16.42 | 87.40% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $16.42 | 87.35% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $16.42 | 87.68% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $16.42 | 87.76% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $16.42 | 87.55% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $16.42 | 87.52% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $16.42 | 87.37% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $16.42 | 87.69% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $16.42 | 87.81% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $16.42 | 87.58% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $16.42 | 87.76% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $16.42 | 87.67% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.42 | 87.94% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% restricted 21.6% classified 10.0% rare 0.1% red 13.7% industrial 4.7% Ancient 2.4% #8847ff 15.5% Legendary 1.5% #d32ce6 4.8% mil spec 2.6% pink 3.9% Rare 3.9% Classified 0.8% Mythical 0.7% blue 3.3% violet 10.3% best hit $1,445 (88.01x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt