---
title: "STRAKA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "STRAKA ($3.95) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 80 items with odds, observed 83.64% over 4,176 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [STRAKA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · STRAKA

A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=all)

Price · $3.95

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.46 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.64% · 4,176 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.13% ±18.73 447 openings

7 days · 83.58% ±6.66 3,615 openings

30 days · 83.64% ±6.20 4,176 openings

since tracking started · 83.64% ±6.20 4,176 openings

76.5% 96.5% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=24h) | 447 | 97.13% ±18.7 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=7d) | 3,615 | 83.58% ±6.66 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka) | 4,176 | 83.64% ±6.20 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/straka?window=all) | 4,176 | 83.64% ±6.20 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,181 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $418 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $313 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $158 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $104 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $53.21 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $51.91 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $41.37 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $37.60 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $35.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $35.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $32.83 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $30.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $23.44 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $22.91 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $22.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $18.32 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $17.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $16.70 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $12.97 | 6.6% | 35 | 73.2 | 0.48× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $12.18 | 3.1% | 16 | 36.8 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $10.65 | 8.0% | 47 | 108.3 | 0.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $9.69 | 1.7% | 13 | 25.1 | 0.52× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $9.64 | 4.2% | 23 | 62.3 | 0.37× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $8.79 | 1.5% | 18 | 24.2 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $8.68 | 1.8% | 13 | 29.3 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $8.40 | 1.8% | 17 | 31.4 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $8.29 | 1.8% | 13 | 32.2 | 0.40× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $7.69 | 2.1% | 22 | 39.7 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $7.33 | 1.5% | 15 | 28.8 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $6.69 | 1.1% | 6 | 23.0 | 0.26× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $6.65 | 1.9% | 24 | 41.8 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $6.43 | 2.5% | 27 | 56.9 | 0.47× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $6.25 | 1.7% | 19 | 39.7 | 0.48× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $5.95 | 1.1% | 11 | 27.6 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $5.84 | 2.0% | 22 | 49.8 | 0.44× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $4.76 | 2.2% | 50 | 68.2 | 0.73× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $4.67 | 1.5% | 21 | 45.6 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $4.37 | 2.9% | 61 | 96.6 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $4.32 | 1.6% | 34 | 53.1 | 0.64× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $4.27 | 1.6% | 33 | 53.1 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $4.26 | 1.6% | 29 | 54.8 | 0.53× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $4.24 | 1.6% | 19 | 55.2 | 0.34× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $4.15 | 1.7% | 45 | 59.0 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $3.97 | 1.8% | 146 | 64.4 | 2.27× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $3.96 | 1.8% | 96 | 64.8 | 1.48× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $3.87 | 7.6% | 67 | 282.2 | 0.24× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $3.71 | 5.0% | 100 | 195.7 | 0.51× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $3.61 | 8.1% | 126 | 324.9 | 0.39× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.82 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $2.74 | 1.0% | 39 | 51.8 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $2.54 | 0.4% | 13 | 21.3 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 189 | $2.48 | 0.4% | 16 | 22.2 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $2.45 | 0.4% | 9 | 22.6 | 0.40× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $2.11 | 0.6% | 24 | 43.9 | 0.55× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $2.04 | 0.7% | 24 | 46.4 | 0.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $1.40 | 0.1% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $0.85 | 0.1% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 3 | 11.3 | 0.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $0.70 | 0.1% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $0.68 | 0.1% | 7 | 13.8 | 0.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $0.57 | 0.1% | 15 | 22.2 | 0.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 13 | 21.3 | 0.61× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 13 | 22.2 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 23 | 28.8 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 36 | 61.5 | 0.59× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.24 | 0.1% | 44 | 76.5 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.21 | 0.2% | 53 | 108.7 | 0.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 59 | 88.6 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 49 | 102.0 | 0.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 69 | 117.5 | 0.59× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 51 | 87.4 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 48 | 95.7 | 0.50× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 51 | 103.3 | 0.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 66 | 124.6 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.16 | 0.1% | 70 | 110.4 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 55 | 122.1 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 69 | 122.1 | 0.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 70 | 181.0 | 0.39× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 87 | 154.3 | 0.56× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/straka`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.95 $428 108.3x 2026-11-06 20:49 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $3.95 $313 79.36x 2026-11-11 04:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=straka)

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $3.95 $0.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $3.95 $0.14 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.95 $3.99 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.95 $0.14 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-field-tested) Hidden $3.95 $0.26 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $3.95 $0.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit) [79valentino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/79valentino) $3.95 $0.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love) [79valentino](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/79valentino) $3.95 $3.86 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit) [pablogilt012](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pablogilt012) $3.95 $0.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [sobirzoda.2000](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/sobirzoda.2000) $3.95 $4.31 1.09x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.95 | 87.50% | 80 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.95 | 87.51% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.95 | 87.42% | 80 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.95 | 87.44% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.95 | 87.85% | 80 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.95 | 87.92% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.95 | 87.30% | 80 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.95 | 87.38% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.95 | 87.27% | 80 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.95 | 87.71% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.95 | 87.45% | 80 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.95 | 87.54% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.95 | 87.37% | 80 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.95 | 87.58% | 80 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.95 | 87.31% | 80 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.95 | 87.32% | 80 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.95 | 87.82% | 80 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% gold 0.1% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% classified 2.2% pink 36.9% #d32ce6 0.0% violet 4.1% #d32ee6 1.5% restricted 2.8% uncommon 1.2% Legendary 1.1% Mythical 5.2% Rare 4.5% #8847ff 1.6% blue 23.2% #4b69ff 9.6% common 2.6% milspec 2.9% best hit $428 (108.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt