--- title: "STRANGE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "STRANGE JOKER ($1,123.34) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.06% over 696 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [STRANGE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · STRANGE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=all) Price · $1,123.34 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.06% · 696 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 215 openings · below min 7 days · 676 openings · below min 30 days · 696 openings · below min since tracking started · 696 openings · below min 63.5% 83.8% 104.0% **Small sample.** 696 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=24h) | 215 | 83.56% ±19.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=7d) | 676 | 85.80% ±10.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker) | 696 | 86.06% ±10.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strange-joker?window=all) | 696 | 86.06% ±10.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nova) $1,118 $8,086 7.23x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,120 $8,086 7.22x 2026-11-06 10:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,120 $8,086 7.22x 2026-11-06 10:20 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,120 $8,086 7.22x 2026-11-06 10:18 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 19:00 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nova) $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 18:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nova) $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 18:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 18:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nova) $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [Nova](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nova) $1,123 $8,086 7.20x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=strange-joker) [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $89.57 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Gold Toof weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $55.94 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $763 0.68x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $913 0.82x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $2,814 2.52x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $233 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $89.57 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $818 0.73x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $143 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $1,118 $264 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,086 (7.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.06 on average: an expected loss of $13.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt