--- title: "STRIKE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "STRIKE JOKER ($42.66) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.56% over 760 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [STRIKE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · STRIKE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=all) Price · $42.66 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.56% · 760 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 113 openings · below min 7 days · 468 openings · below min 30 days · 760 openings · below min since tracking started · 760 openings · below min 65.0% 118.0% 171.0% **Small sample.** 760 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=24h) | 113 | 121.33% ±49.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=7d) | 468 | 94.22% ±20.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker) | 760 | 79.56% ±13.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike-joker?window=all) | 760 | 79.56% ±13.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=strike-joker) [SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.25 $1.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.25 $458 10.58x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) Hidden $43.96 $3.81 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.96 $1.18 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) Hidden $43.96 $2.72 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.96 $463 10.54x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.25 $62.17 1.44x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.25 $8.66 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) Hidden $43.96 $23.77 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $43.96 $63.63 1.45x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.56 on average: an expected loss of $20.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt